Spezia vs Novara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.2%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.6%
3-0
6.6%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.2%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18%
1-0
13.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.8%
24%
Draw
0-0
8.2%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
24%
17.9%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
12.4%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+33%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Spezia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr. 2005 |
MAN
0 - 1
SPE
53%
25%
22%
|
57 | 62 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2005 |
SPE
1 - 1
PRO
47%
27%
26%
|
58 | 55 | 3 | -1 |
| 06 Apr. 2005 |
ACS
0 - 0
SPE
31%
27%
42%
|
58 | 48 | 10 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 2005 |
ASL
0 - 1
SPE
35%
28%
38%
|
57 | 53 | 4 | +1 |
| 13 Mar. 2005 |
SPE
0 - 0
PAV
44%
27%
29%
|
57 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Novara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr. 2005 |
VIT
2 - 2
NOV
31%
25%
44%
|
51 | 44 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2005 |
NOV
0 - 0
PIS
40%
28%
32%
|
51 | 58 | 7 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2005 |
USC
3 - 0
NOV
65%
21%
15%
|
52 | 59 | 7 | -1 |
| 26 Mar. 2005 |
NOV
1 - 0
FRO
27%
26%
47%
|
51 | 62 | 11 | +1 |
| 20 Mar. 2005 |
ACI
2 - 1
NOV
39%
29%
33%
|
52 | 52 | 0 | -1 |