Liga 3 Group A Round 1

Amarante vs Varzim analysis

Amarante Varzim
56 ELO 61
-11.4% Tilt -13.2%
3529º General ELO ranking 3351º
61º Country ELO ranking 56º
ELO win probability
34.9%
Amarante
28.7%
Draw
36.4%
Varzim

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
34.9%
Win probability
Amarante
1.11
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
2.4%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.1%
+3
3.3%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
2.7%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
9.7%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
7.4%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.8%
28.7%
Draw
0-0
10.5%
1-1
13.3%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
28.7%
36.4%
Win probability
Varzim
1.14
Expected goals
0-1
12%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
21.4%
0-2
6.9%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
10.3%
0-3
2.6%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
Amarante
-33%
+20%
Varzim

Points and table prediction

Amarante
Their league position
Varzim
CURR.POS.
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
4
6
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
Expected position in the table
Current table Final expectations
RK PTS. PTS. RK PROB
Varzim
6
33
36.5%
Sporting Braga II
6
30
24%
Vitória Guimarães B
4
26
12.5%
AD Sanjoanense
5
26
8%
Amarante
4
26
11%
Trofense
5
24
11.5%
Fafe
2
21
8.5%
São João Ver
10º
1
20
13%
AD Marco 09
3
19
15.5%
USC Paredes
2
18
10º
18.5%
Expected probabilities
Amarante
Varzim
Promotion play-offs
48% 84%
Relegation play-offs
52% 16%

ELO progression

Amarante
Varzim
Trofense
Fafe
USC Paredes
AD Marco 09
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Amarante
Amarante
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
30 Jul. 2025
CHA
Chaves
0 - 2
Amarante
AMA
78%
15%
7%
56 76 20 0
23 Jul. 2025
AMA
Amarante
0 - 0
Feirense
FEI
18%
23%
59%
56 72 16 0
17 May. 2025
SCP
Sporting CP II
2 - 0
Amarante
AMA
53%
25%
22%
57 59 2 -1
10 May. 2025
AMA
Amarante
1 - 4
Os Belenenses
BEL
37%
28%
35%
58 59 1 -1
03 May. 2025
ATL
Atlético CP
3 - 1
Amarante
AMA
37%
28%
35%
59 55 4 -1

Matches

Varzim
Varzim
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
20 Jul. 2025
VAR
Varzim
2 - 2
Vizela
VIZ
14%
20%
66%
60 79 19 0
19 Jul. 2025
VAR
Varzim
1 - 1
AVS Futebol
AVE
17%
19%
64%
60 70 10 0
16 Jul. 2025
VAR
Varzim
0 - 1
Lusitania FC
LUS
36%
26%
38%
60 65 5 0
17 May. 2025
VAR
Varzim
5 - 3
Fafe
FAF
54%
25%
22%
59 54 5 +1
10 May. 2025
1DE
1º Dezembro
0 - 3
Varzim
VAR
27%
29%
44%
58 52 6 +1