CAF Champions Semi-finals
Global 1-1
Al Ahly SC vs Mamelodi Sundowns analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.4%
Win probability
1.81
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.3%
3-0
4.8%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.1%
2-0
8%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.7%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.8%
23.1%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.1%
25.5%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15.2%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+20%
+34%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Al Ahly SC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 2025 |
SUN
0 - 0
ALA
47%
25%
29%
|
73 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2025 |
ALA
1 - 2
PHA
52%
24%
25%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2025 |
ASY
1 - 1
ALA
55%
24%
21%
|
73 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Apr. 2025 |
ALH
0 - 1
ALA
8%
17%
74%
|
73 | 28 | 45 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2025 |
ALA
1 - 0
ALH
89%
8%
3%
|
73 | 28 | 45 | 0 |
Matches
Mamelodi Sundowns
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 2025 |
SUN
0 - 0
ALA
47%
25%
29%
|
73 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2025 |
SUN
1 - 2
CHI
49%
25%
26%
|
74 | 72 | 2 | -1 |
| 08 Apr. 2025 |
ESP
0 - 0
SUN
41%
25%
34%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2025 |
SUN
1 - 0
ESP
53%
24%
23%
|
73 | 71 | 2 | +1 |
| 28 Mar. 2025 |
SUN
1 - 0
SUF
49%
25%
26%
|
73 | 72 | 1 | 0 |