Série D Brazil Final round 1/16
ABC vs Retro FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
57.9%
Win probability
1.79
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.9%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.5%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.9%
1-0
11.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.8%
23%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23%
19.1%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
6.1%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.7%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-12%
-7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
ABC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep. 2021 |
RFC
1 - 1
ABC
29%
27%
44%
|
55 | 48 | 7 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2021 |
ABC
2 - 0
TRE
66%
21%
13%
|
55 | 47 | 8 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2021 |
SOU
2 - 0
ABC
18%
25%
57%
|
56 | 44 | 12 | -1 |
| 22 Aug. 2021 |
ABC
3 - 1
ARN
53%
24%
23%
|
55 | 52 | 3 | +1 |
| 15 Aug. 2021 |
UNI
1 - 0
ABC
25%
25%
51%
|
56 | 45 | 11 | -1 |
Matches
Retro FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep. 2021 |
RFC
1 - 1
ABC
29%
27%
44%
|
48 | 55 | 7 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2021 |
MUR
2 - 2
RFC
21%
24%
55%
|
49 | 36 | 13 | -1 |
| 29 Aug. 2021 |
RFC
0 - 0
SER
53%
24%
23%
|
49 | 48 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2021 |
ALA
1 - 1
RFC
43%
25%
32%
|
49 | 48 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 2021 |
RFC
1 - 1
BAH
53%
23%
24%
|
49 | 47 | 2 | 0 |