Group Stage Shockers: Teams Primed to Upset the Euro 2024 Favourites

Reigning champions, Italy will be keen to defend their crown and potentially claim their third European Championship triumph. However, they will face formidable opposition from powerhouses such as France, Portugal, Belgium, England, and Spain. We must also remember the host nation, Germany.

Based on their pedigree, these teams should make deep runs into the latter stages of this competition. However, the main appeal of football lies in its unpredictability and potential for drama. 

Given the quality of teams in this tournament, expect drama and upsets to erupt right from the group stage. Our guide looks at the favorite teams in this competition. We also analyze teams with the potential to cause huge upsets during the group stage.

What Teams Will Compete in Euro 2024?

Twenty-four teams will compete at the Euro 2024 finals in Germany this year. These teams split into six groups. Due to the format adopted in 2016, sixteen teams will advance from the group stage. Six teams will advance as group winners, while six will enter the knockout stage as runner-ups. Four teams will leave the group stage as the best-performing third-place finishers.

The table below shows the qualified 24 European countries in their respective groups.

Group A		Group B		Group C
Pos	Team	Pos	Team	Pos	Team
A1	Germany	B1	Spain	C1	Slovenia
A2	Scotland	B2	Croatia	C2	Denmark
A3	Hungary	B3	Italy	C3	Serbia
A4	Switzerland	B4	Albania	C4	England
Group D		Group E		Group F
Pos	Team	Pos	Team	Pos	Team
D1	Poland	E1	Belgium	F1	Turkey
D2	Netherlands	E2	Slovakia	F2	Georgia
D3	Austria	E3	Romania	F3	Portugal
D4	France	E4	Ukraine	F4	Czech Republic

As uncertain as this game can be, sometimes it can be easy to predict football matches and choose favorites. However, being successful at this solely depends on picking teams that have strong qualities and experience. History is always bound to repeat itself when it comes to football competitions. 

In this section, we look at the potential favorites to advance to the knockouts as group winners. We will be analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of the following favorites in the subsection below:

Groups	Favorites
A	Germany
B	Spain, Italy
C	England
D	France
E	Belgium
F	Portugal

 

Germany

Germany boasts an impressive record in Euro qualification, having participated in 13 European Championships before Euro 2024. They are the most successful team in the competition's history, having lifted three championship titles. However, their last championship title came in 1996.

Germany has not succeeded in international competitions recently, with its last trophy being the Confederation Cup in 2017. In Group A of Euro 2024, they will face Scotland, Hungary, and Switzerland. 

Germany has played Scotland four times, securing straight wins in all matches against this opponent. On the other hand, Hungary has proved challenging for Die Mannschaft to handle. The Hungarians have won two and drawn two out of six against the host nation. Hungary's last win came against Germany in the 2022 Nations League. 

Switzerland is another daunting challenge for the Germans. They have drawn three out of their last four games against the Swiss, securing one victory. Regardless of Germany's head-to-head appearance, they have the home advantage of being the host nation. 

They also hold another advantage over the other teams: they are the most experienced in this group. Likewise, they have leading top-form players, including Kai Havertz, Leroy Sane, Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala, and Antonio Rudiger.

Spain

Spain is another powerhouse with three Euro trophies to their name. Unlike Germany, Spain won its last Euro trophy 12 years ago. Spain will face off against the current Euro Champions, Italy, Croatia, and Albania. 

La Roja has a decent record against Italy, having won six and drawn seven in their last 15 games. Their last encounter ended in a win for Spain. La Roja defeated Italy 2-1 in the semi-final of last year's Nations League. 

Spain beat Croatia in the final of the 2023 Nations League through penalties. Likewise, the former has won four out of their seven games against Croatia in all competitions. It has been a one-sided affair between Spain and Albania, with the latter losing their previous encounters. 

Spain and Italy are the favourites to exit Group B at the top. Spain has a slight advantage due to its excellent head-to-head results compared to the other group members. Spain also won seven out of eight Euro qualifying games. 

La Roja will rely heavily on star players like Lamine Yamal, Rodri, Alex Grimaldo, Nico Williams, and Alvaro Morata, among others. 

Italy

Things have been silent recently for the two-time Euro winner, having failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup. Italy also lost the Nations League Semi-Final to Spain in 2023. So, the country will seek to assert dominance and refurbish its great image as the current Euro champion in Euro 2024.

Italy is in a severe grind, competing with Spain and Croatia for a place in the knockout stages. Italy has as much chance as Spain to finish on top of the group or at least in second place. 

The 2021 Euro winner will seek to avenge its Nations League Semi-Final loss to Spain. Gli Azzurri has not played against Croatia in recent years, thus giving them a clean slate in the tie. Italy is on a good run, having only lost once in their last five games. Albania had only secured their 2nd ever Euro qualification. 

Given their pedigree, Italy has a double chance of securing a win against the South Eastern Europeans. It doesn't help that they have lost all previous encounters against Gli Azzuri. 

Italy will seek to utilise their star qualities, including Gianluigi Donnarumma, Federico Chiesa, Manuel Locatelli, Gianluca Scamaca, and Champions League Winner - Jorginho. 

England

Many fans believe England's biggest hurdle is their manager, Gareth Southgate.  Despite a solid qualifying campaign with six wins and zero losses, some feel a change in leadership is needed.

England secured a much easier group than Spain for Euro 2024. They'll face Slovenia, Denmark, and Serbia. While Denmark and Slovenia topped their qualifying group (winning 7 out of 10 games), England has historically dominated both teams. This could translate to some attractive betting opportunities for fans looking to place wagers on the group stage. 

England’s only challenge in this group is their matchup against Denmark. In their head-to-head matches, both teams are evenly matched, so it would be a challenging game between these two countries. 

On the other hand, England has won five out of its six meetings against Slovenia, losing just once. The 2020 Euro Finalist has never played Serbia competitively, so it is a clean slate for both countries. 

England has enough top players to go a long way in the competition. Their star players include Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, and Cole Palmer. So, watch out for them.

France

The two-time Euro winner, is our favorite pick to finish 1st place in Group D. In their qualifying games, they won seven and drew one. They finished first in their qualifying group, ahead of the Netherlands. 

France will be participating in this competition for the 11th time. In Group D, Les Bleus will face Poland, the Netherlands, and Austria, with their highlight game against the Dutch. 

France dominated the Netherlands in their two qualifier meetings, scoring a whopping six goals in both games. France has only lost twice against the Netherlands in ten games; its most recent defeat was in 2018. With France looking strong, it's no surprise that some betting sites might favor them in this upcoming match.

The French have never lost to Poland, although they have only met thrice in all competitions. Their last game against the Poles at the 2022 World Cup ended with over 2.5 goals, thanks to goals from Giroud and Mbappe. They have also won three out of their previous five games against Austria. 

With Kylian Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann, Eduardo Camavinga, and William Saliba in the form of their lives, France is the clear favorite in Group D. 

Belgium

The Belgian national team was unbeaten in all of their qualifier matches. The Red Devils will make their 7th Euro appearance in Germany this summer. They have one of the most manageable groups, with Slovakia, Romania, and Ukraine in it. 

Belgium has a perfect chance of coming out of this group unscathed. The Red Devils have faced Slovakia twice, securing one win and one draw. Given their current head-to-head, most bookies will offer the Draw No Bet prediction for Belgium in this matchup.

Belgium has not faced Romania in the last decade, but in terms of player quality and form, they should find the challenge easy to overcome. The same applies to Belgium and Ukraine, as they have only ever faced one another once, with the former victorious. 

Kevin DeBruyne, Romelu Lukaku, Jeremy Doku, and Leandro Trossard are among the Belgian stars who can pull Belgium through. We tip Belgium to go to the knockouts without losing in Group E. 

Portugal

The Portuguese team was the best during the Euro qualifier campaign, being the only country to win ten games. They scored 36 goals and conceded just two. You can argue that they were in an easy group, but no doubt they did exceedingly well regardless.

The 2016 Euro winner will be making their 9th entrance into the UEFA European Championship in 2024. Turkey, Georgia, and the Czech Republic are in the same group. 

Lest you forget, Turkey finished top of their qualifier group, ahead of Croatia, making them a potential dark horse against Portugal. Regarding the head-to-head ratio, Portugal has two wins compared to Turkey's one in three meetings. 

The Czech Republic also finished second in their qualifier group, on the same point as Albania, who finished first. Unfortunately, the Czech has never won a game against Portugal. 

Portugal faced Georgia once, in 2008. The match ended as a 0:0 draw. With Portugal's quality and squad depth, it is unlikely that anyone in their group will defeat them.

Unfortunately, Portugal has fumbled against low-rated international teams in recent years. Regardless of their shaky nature when the stakes are high, we believe Portugal will go to the knockout stages as the Group F leading team.

Probable Underdogs to Cause Group Stage Upsets?

It is impossible to make a 100% assertion regarding football match-ups. However, based on their current form, we can identify teams with the potential to handicap top teams at this tournament. 

Now, it is a question of whether the favorites can stand on business or fall victim to the threats that underdogs pose. Below are the underdogs we have identified to be capable of possibly pulling a fast one on the favorites in the group stage:

Groups	Underdogs
A	Scotland | Switzerland
B	Croatia
C	Denmark
D	Poland
E	Ukraine
F	Turkey

Scotland finished 2nd in Group A of the Euro 2024 qualifiers, just behind the European giants - Spain, with only one loss. Euro 2024 will be Scotland's fourth appearance in the competition. They will play Germany in the opening game of Euro 2024 on Jun 14. 

Switzerland, our second underdog in Group A, will seek to perform on the big stage against Germany and Scotland. In their sixth appearance in the competition, the Swiss have a fair chance of making it past the group stage. 

Croatia, the 2018 World Cup runner-up, is an underrated participant that no one seems to pay attention to but always flourishes. Now that they have fallen into the 'Group of Death' with Spain and Italy, they will be looking to make a statement more than ever.

Denmark will participate in the Euro competition in 2024 for the 10th time, more than our other underdogs. They won the competition once in 1992 when they replaced Yugoslavia in that tournament.

Poland barely made it through, having qualified through playoff path A by defeating Wales on penalties. Euro 2024 will be their fifth appearance in this competition, with their best finish coming in 2016 when they reached the quarter-finals. 

Ukraine is yet another victim of resilience. They made the quarter-finals in 2020 and will make their fourth show-up in the competition this year. Ukraine might upset the scale and qualify for the knockout stages in Group E.

The footballing community should not sleep on Turkey in Group F as they finished on top, ahead of Croatia, in their qualifier group. Turkey has a fair chance of leaving Group F on top, ahead of Portugal, like they did with Croatia. 

Profiles of the Euro 2024 Underdog Teams

Find interesting facts on our expert-picked underdogs for Euro 2024 in the subsections below. We will discuss recent performances and the journey to qualification. We will also look at the teams' key players, winning methods, and style of play. Additionally, we will highlight their strengths and weaknesses and how they might compete against favorites. 

Scotland 

The Scottish national team will open up the Euro 2024 competition against the hosts - Germany, on Jun 14. Find out more about why Scotland is a prime underdog that may upset the natural dynamics of the group stage. 

Qualification Journey and Recent Performances 

Scotland scaled through by finishing second just behind the European giants - Spain, having won five of their eight qualifier games. Scotland only lost one game, the return leg against Spain, having won the first leg on matchday two. 

Their form after the qualifiers dipped as they lost by under 4.5 goals to the Netherlands and one to Northern Ireland. Thus, many will overlook Scotland, making the country a prime underdog in this tournament.

Key Players to Watch 

Scotland has the on-pitch qualities to pull off surprise wins at the European Championships in June. Andy Robertson, Kieran Tierney, Billy Gilmour, and John McGinn are players to watch out for. 

Strengths and Weaknesses 

Scotland's greatest strength is its resilience and the ability never to tire out. This strength got them through the qualifier campaign and to Germany in 2024. 

Let us see what happens. Perhaps Scotland will pull a shocker in the group stages of Euro 2024. They will face Germany, Switzerland, and Hungary. 

Tactics and Style of Play 

Scotland's manager, Steve Clarke, loves the back-3 formation. With Tierney in the back three and Robertson as a left-wing back, Steve will be looking to hold the center of the pitch with Billy Gilmour and Scott Mctominay. McGinn will be flying up ahead in the attacking midfield. 

Switzerland 

The Swiss persevered through the qualifiers and arrived just in time to board the Euro 2024 train.

Qualification Journey and Recent Performances

Switzerland unfortunately finished second behind Romania, having lost one out of their ten qualifier games to the group leaders. In hindsight, Switzerland scored 22 goals, which was the most in the group. 

Since the conclusion of the Euro qualifiers, Switzerland has played two games, which ended in a win and a draw. The Swiss will be looking to extend their spirited form when the Euro 2024 tournament begins on June 14.

Key Players to Watch

The Swiss team has the talent to produce unbelievable results in June. Grant Xhaka, Xherdan Shaqiri, Fabian Schar, and Noah Okafor are notable names on the team. 

Strengths and Weaknesses

The Swiss national team's top strength is its goal-scoring ability. However, they need to improve their defensive record. Their defensive records are all right, but they can be better. 

Tactics and Style of Play

Murat Yakin favors the 3-4-3 formation, with Newcastle man Fabian Schar at the helm of the defense. Grant Xhaka, after an impressive season with Bayer Leverkusen, will be looking to hold on to his crucial midfield role for Euro 2024. 

Yakin must decide whether to start Shaqiri or Noah Okafor up top when the tournament begins. Unfortunately for Okafor, he has been unable to nail down a starting position at AC Milan this season, with only five starts in Serie A.

Switzerland will have Germany, Scotland, and Hungary to contend with for the group stage. 

Croatia 

The Croatians are the true definition of upsetters, having made the World Cup final in 2018. They also reached the Euro knockouts in 2021, the World Cup semis in 2022, and the Nations League final in 2023.

Qualification Journey and Recent Performances

Croatia fumbled first place during the qualifiers by losing consecutively to Turkey and Wales. They conceded just four qualifier goals in eight games, which is very impressive. 

Croatia is in good form, having won their last two encounters with Tunisia and Egypt. They will be looking to continue on this run and create problems for Spain and Italy in Euro 2024 Group B. The group of death also has a top-spot qualifier finisher, Albania.

Key Players to Watch

Luka Modric, Josko Gvardiol, Marcelo Brozovic, and Mateo Kovacic will be looking to make their mark once the tournament starts on June 14.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Croatia's primary strength is in its defense. This prowess was evident during their qualifier campaign. Their major weakness would be a lack of concentration in high-stakes situations. 

Tactics and Style of Play

Zlatko Dalic has been the manager of the Croatian national team since 2017. The team always tries its best to win. They like to have the midfield on lockdown with the key trio—Modric, Kovacic, and Brozovic—in the heart of the business. 

They are up against Italy and Spain.

Denmark 

No one acknowledges Denmark as a football powerhouse, but they pull shockers occasionally. 

Qualification Journey and Recent Performances

Denmark has only lost one of its last ten games. Although they don't score many goals, their spirited defensive display makes up for it. 

Key Players to Watch

Watch out for: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Christian Eriksen, Andreas Christensen, Jannik Vestergaard, Mikkel Damsgaard, and Rasmus Højlund. 

Strengths and Weaknesses

Denmark's primary strength is the level of experience in its squad. The national team's biggest weakness is its tame threats in front of the goal.  Given the quality of their defense, we don’t expect the Danes to lose by large winning margins in the group stage.

Tactics and Style of Play

Kasper Hjulmand has been Denmark's coach since 2020. He loves the 4-3-3 formation with experience all over the pitch. The team plays direct yet cohesive football with fluid passing and clinical finishes. 

Denmark will play Slovenia, Serbia, and England in the group stage. They have the quality to stand on business and upset this group's favorite (England).

Poland 

The Poland national team needs more quality but uses its players to the best of its abilities. They can sometimes pull off some expected results. Their win against Wales during the final qualifier match is a fitting example. Undoubtedly, the Poles are the main underdogs in Group D. 

Qualification Journey and Recent Performances

Poland finished third after eight qualifier games. They had to play additional playoff group matches and came out on top against Wales by winning on penalties. 

The Polish have not lost any of their last five games, including international friendlies. They will be keen to tap into this fine run of form and stay motivated for the daunting journey ahead. Having star striker Robert Lewandowski in their ranks is a big bonus for the Polish team.

Key Players to Watch

Keep your eyes on Robert Lewandowski, Wojciech Szczesny, Jad Bednarak, and the young Arsenal talent - Jakub Kiwior. 

Strengths and Weaknesses

Poland made the quarter-finals in 2016 and will look to do so again. Their most significant strength is having experience in almost every position on the field. Poland's weakest link will be their aging players and debilitating style of play. Also, they are not known for scoring multi goals in their encounters.

Tactics and Style of Play

Michal Probierz took over from Fernando Santos in September 2023. The latter's approach to football may seem backward to the footballing community. It involved spamming long balls into the attacking half, with the Polish attackers making run-ins behind. Michal has been exploring a more direct approach. 

Poland will be up against the Netherlands, Austria, and England in the Euro 2024 group stage. If any country can pull a fast one on the favourite in this group, it will be Poland. 

Ukraine 

Resilience is the keyword here. Ukraine, the war-torn country, never gave up hope. Please find out more about their journey to Euro 2024 below. 

Qualification Journey and Recent Performances

Ukraine finished third behind England and Italy, having won half of their matches during the qualifier campaign. They conceded fewer goals than Italy, which is eight to the latter's nine. Coach Rebrov's team has been in good form, having won four of their last five games. 

Key Players to Watch

The Ukrainian players to watch in Euro 2024 include Mykhailo Mudryk, Vitaliy Mykolenko, Oleksandr Zinchenko, and Real Madrid goalkeeper - Andriy Lunin. 

Strengths and Weaknesses

Ukraine has a lot of youthful energy on its side. They do not score much but keep things tidy at the back. Despite not having enough star power, they have been able to pull their weight against England and Italy in recent matchups. They really can use more goals anyway. 

Tactics and Style of Play

Serhiy Rebrov became Ukraine's coach in 2023 and landed them qualification for their sixth-ever Euro competition. The team adopts a direct style of play consisting of sheer sequential passes and long transition balls. They also have the likes of Mudryk running behind the opponent's defense. 

Ukraine will have Belgium, Slovakia, and Romania to deal with. Will they be the ones to upset Belgium's top spot claim? We will see each other in June. 

Turkey 

They were a different gravy in the 2024 Euro qualifying campaign. Turkey finished on top of their group, ahead of Croatia and Wales. 

Qualification Journey and Recent Performances

Turkey looked capable in the qualifiers, derailing Wales and Croatia and incurring just one loss against the latter in eight games. 

But recently, Turkey lost horribly by six goals to Austria. Despite that result, they will be looking to make a clear statement when the Euro 2024 tournament begins. 

Key Players to Watch

Turkey has a limited number of star names, but their key players include Hakan Calhanoglu, Arda Guler, and Ozan Kabak. 

Strengths and Weaknesses

The Turkey team needs more maturity in front of the goal. It is evident that Calhanoglu, one of their most experienced players, needs help to do the job.

Turkey's biggest strength is their defence, having conceded just seven goals in their eight qualifier games. 

Tactics and Style of Play

Turkey appointed Vincenzo Montella in September 2023 during the Euro qualifier campaign. With his direct attacking play, Montella secured Turkey a top finish ahead of Croatia and Wales.  

In the group stage, Turkey will face Portugal, the Czech Republic, and Georgia. These three countries are in an excellent position to give Portugal problems and probably hinder their likely first-place finish.

Case Studies of Past Euro Upsets 

Going back in time, we were able to pull instances from the Euro editions whereby an underdog upset the prospects of the group's favourite. Two of our three case studies are from Euro 2016, while the third is from the tournament's last edition. 

Euro 2016 - Group D

Spain was on the brunt end of the pain, well delivered by Croatia, in Group D of UEFA Euro 2016. Croatia and Spain won their first games against Turkey and the Czech Republic. 

The second matchday saw a four-goal thriller, equally divided between Czech and Croatia. Spain, on the other hand, battered Turkey by three goals without conceding any. 

At this point, the football community assumed that Spain would finish first in the group. Spain's final test was Croatia, who had drawn their last match due to an unfortunate penalty incident in the 89th minute. 

Jun 21, 2016, came soon enough, and it was time for Croatia versus Spain. The latter had gone ahead, thanks to Morata's goal in the 7th minute. To the surprise of everyone, Croatia came from behind with an equaliser from Kalinic right before half-time and a Perisic solo winner in the 87th minute. 

Croatia went on to upend the favourite scale and finished first place ahead of Spain. The pressure certainly got to Spain, especially their goalkeeper - David De Gea, with the Croatian crowd being all loud behind him. The favourites in this year's European Championships can take a thing or two from Spain's 2016 playbook and avoid a repeat of that upset. 

Euro 2016 - Group F

Another colossal upset occurred in Group F, which consisted of Hungary, Iceland, Portugal, and Austria. With their star man, Cristiano Ronaldo, at the peak of his powers, the footballing community could not have imagined the almost devastating upset. 

The bizarreness started from day one when Portugal drew their first game to Iceland. Gameday two came, and it was yet another draw between Iceland and Austria. Now, Portugal was in danger of an early exit from the tournament. 

Things got tense for Portugal on matchday three. They were down to Hungary by a score of 2-3. A 62nd-minute Cristiano Ronaldo goal saved Portugal from defeat and forced a draw. 

Without winning any game in the group stage, Portugal finished third. Fortunately, they ranked as the third-best third-placed team, which took them to the knockout stages. Amazingly, despite the group stage upset, Portugal won the Euro 2016 edition thanks to the famous Eder goal in the final against hosts France. 

The lesson that the favorites in the 2024 Euro campaign can pull from Portugal's experience is that they can achieve a lot with resilience. Never give in to the pressure, no matter what. 

Euro 2020 - Group E

Yet again, another upset had Spain written all over it. You would think they would have learned a lesson from the previous year. In June of 2021, Sweden finished first ahead of Spain due to the latter's unfortunate stalemate with the former and Poland. 

Spain casually had a goalless draw against Sweden on game day one. They then fell to another 1:1 draw against Poland, courtesy of Robert Lewandowski. The game featured scoring halves from both sides. But Spain's Gérard Moreno could have clinched victory for his side in the second half. However, he failed to convert his penalty. 

Unfortunately, despite winning their last group game against Slovakia by five goals, Spain finished second place. Sweden upset Spain's stake at finishing on top of the group by securing two wins and a draw, giving them a two-point lead. 

The lesson or insight from this upset case is that favorites must endeavor to make the most of their chances when it comes. Spain could have finished ahead of Sweden but failed to convert their chances, most likely due to mounting pressure. 

Conclusion 

Every tournament hinges on the group-stage matches for several reasons. First, they act like a giant filter, separating the strong teams from the weak. This lets the teams that truly deserve it advance to the knockout rounds. Usually, pre-tournament favorites may not make it out of the group stage.

The group stage sets the mood for the entire competition. If a team starts strong, it can build momentum and confidence. Both factors are vital for progressing into the latter stages of any tournament.

Every major competition has underdogs who dream of knocking the favorites out. These underdogs can cause major upsets, shaking things up in the tournament. With so much talent heading to Germany this summer, we will enjoy a lot of drama at the UEFA European Championships. 

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