Ballon D'Or: what if the award was given on performance?

What are the criteria for winning the Ballon d'Or? The million-dollar question does not have a universal answer. Cannavaro or Modric were taken by the collective merits (club and national team); Ronaldinho or Ronaldo were awarded for their exhibitions on the field. Nor have the players involved in the final decision always been the same. In the last edition, 176 journalists from all the member federations chose five players, who were awarded 6, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point, respectively. There are those who vote for what they have done in the year, by rank, for the titles they have won. ProFootballDB adds to this fierce debate by contributing the most objective thing it can bring: the numbers achieved.

So this list is the Ballon d'Or according to performance, not votes. And although sometimes science and intangibles do not go together, this time we find many correspondences with reality. The clearest, that Messi and Cristiano would still have six and five, respectively (although the dates and years would change) The other big headlines are that Luis Suarez would have conquered one and that Luka Modric, winner in 2018, would not have been among the first four in that edition.

First of all, we explain the criteria for measuring performance and set the starting point for our study in 2008, when the dynasty of Leo Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo began, only broken by the Croatian two years ago. We took into account the merits achieved in the top European leagues, the Champions, the Europa League, the World Cup, the European Championship, the Copa America and the Africa Cup of Nations, and players who had played at least 40 matches so as not to distort the results.

What do the scores say? We do have a single criterion. Our algorithm weighs the important offensive actions: goals, assists, key passes, dribbles, shots on goal... the most objective data. We have associated a score of 0 to 10 with each season's performance.

These are the results

2008

By voting                 By performance

1 Cristiano             |  1 Cristiano(8,96)

2 Messi                  | 2 Luca Toni (8.09)

3 Fernando Torres | 3 Fernando Torres (8.05)

4 Iker Casillas        | 4 Van der Vaart (8.05)

Cristiano was the first to appear on the cover of France Football at the time of the award's duopoly. He conquered it with Manchester United, and it can be said that he combined individual merits, 40 goals and 7 assists (we insist that it is not in all competitions but in the ones clarified in the study), with the Red Devils, since he raised Champions, the Premier League and the English Super Cup. 

Messi, who finished second, had not yet had his full breakthrough. The injuries deprived him of playing a dozen games and his collection of goals and assists (16 and 10) was one of the lowest in his career with Barça, so neither appears among the highlights. 

His place should have been taken by Luca Toni, who in the Bayern shirt reached the highest scoring figure of his career, 39 goals. It is no coincidence that Van der Vaart was fourth in the 07-08 season at Hamburg, and that earned him a move to Madrid was the highest mark of his career: 15 goals and 10 assists.  

2009 

By voting    By performance

1 Messi      | 1 Messi (9.05)

2 Cristiano | 2 Dzeko (8,48)

3 Xavi        | 3 Mario Gómez (8.39)

4 Iniesta     | 4 Forlán (8,25)

Leo Messi surpassed Cristiano the following season. The Barça star completed the first of his great years with the club. The arrival of Guardiola to the bench changed his career. With 32 goals and 15 assists, he was the leader of the treble. 

The Portuguese should not even have finished in the top ten, but neither should Xavi or Iniesta. He should have had more prize for the great scoring year of Edin Dzeko (Wolfsburg), Mario Gomez (Stuttgart) and Diego Forlan (Atletico Madrid), who reached the 30-year mark and who lacked more showcase with their teams. 

2010 

By voting    By performance

1 Messi     | 1 Messi (8.99)

2 Iniesta    | 2 Drogba (8,19)

3 Xavi       | 3 Higuaín (8.14)

4 Sneijder | 4 Villa (8,11)

Barça's sextet and Spain's conquest of the World Cup in South Africa left a historic podium: for the first time, three players from the same team were on it. When everything indicated that Iniesta or Xavi would take it, Messi's final choice was surprising. 

But the numbers cannot argue with the decision. 42 goals and 11 goals refuted his contribution to the sum of three other titles, even though he got a tough 4-0 loss over Germany in the quarterfinals of the World Cup with the Argentine national team. 

With this way of choosing the Ballon d'Or, Del Bosque's Spain would also have been taken into account, as David Villa would have been in fourth place. But he was behind Drogba, who reached the top of his goal tally (37, 34 counting), and Gonzalo Higuain, who in the 09-10 campaign sealed his most outstanding performance as a Madrid player (33 goals, 5 assists). No one at Inter Milan, despite their hat-trick, stood out enough on an individual level to make an appearance. 

2011 

By voting     By performance

1 Month     | 1 Month (8.93)

2 Cristiano | 2 Christian (8,85)

3 Xavi        | 3 Eto'o (8,20)

4 Iniesta    | 4 Cavani (7,98)

2011 is the only case where first and second were the same in actual and data-based voting. Messi, who lifted another Champions League title and added three more, again signed one of the most prolific courses in his career (43 goals and 25 assists). Cristiano scored three more goals, but the dominance of the Argentine did not generate debate. 

Samuel Eto'o, the Argentinian's partner in that Barça side, and Edinson Cavani, who celebrated his first year at San Paolo with 33 goals (31 counted), should have overtaken Xavi and Iniesta. 

2012 

By voting     By performance

1 Messi      | 1 Cristiano (9,50)

2 Cristiano | 2 Messi (9,31)

3 Iniesta     | 3 Huntelaar (8,38)

4 Xavi        | 4 Nené (8,16)

Here we find the first lack of correspondence in the winner confronting voting and performance. It was Messi, who completed the highest scoring year of his life (73 goals, 64 in the competitions studied), but we are talking about an even more impressive version of Cristiano (59 goals, 16 assists). Indeed, his 9.5 points in the study were the second highest in the survey. Along with the 9.31 of Leo, we talk about the edition with the first two most outstanding of all.

In this edition we notice another novelty: the presence of Nené as the first player among the first classified without being a forward. But that year his numbers were worthy of a great attacker: 22 goals and 10 assists. 

2013

By voting     By performance

1 Cristiano     | 1 Messi (9,05)

2 Messi          | 2 Ibrahimovic (8.58)

3 Ribéry         | 3 Cristiano (8,53)

4 Ibrahimovic | 4 Bale (8,26)

Here is the opposite case from the previous one. Cristiano, not far behind with Real Madrid in titles and figures, set up an incredible play-off for the World Cup against Sweden a month before. He scored all four of Portugal's goals, including a hat trick in the return leg. This ended up weighing more heavily on journalists, although Messi, with 8 goals and 3 assists more than the Portuguese, closed a better year personally. 

Moreover, even Ibrahimovic managed better figures, as he landed hungry in the Parc des Princes (33 goals, 15 assists). Gareth Bale, in his most prolific year with Tottenham (26 goals, 24 computable for our study) and that pushed him definitely to the Bernabeu. 

2014 

By voting By performance

1 Cristiano | 1 Cristiano (9,51)

2 Messi     | 2 Ibrahimovic (8.68)

3 Neuer     | 3 Messi (8.55)

4 Robben  | 4 Yaya Touré (8.02)

Cristiano Ronaldo signed his most authoritative Ballon d'Or, the second in a row with Real Madrid, thanks to the highest score in the ProFootballDB report (9.51). Another champions league trophy arrived and another position of maximum continental scorer; in addition, beating the best registry of the 14 goals, since he got to 17, that continues being the present record. In total, 49 goals and 16 assists.

The year of Messi is not that it was bad (40 and 12), but until Ibrahimovic completed better total numbers in the offensive chapter. Yaya Toure came in fourth in the performance rankings after a dream year at the Etihad: 21 goals, nine assists and a domestic double (Premier and League Cup). 

2015 

By voting    By performance

1 Messi      | 1 Cristiano (9,33)

2 Cristiano | 2 Messi (9,05)

3 Neymar   | 3 Neymar (8.31)

4 Lewandowski | 4 De Bruyne (8,30)

61 goals and 22 assists, 58 and 20 at study level, are still the highest ever set by Cristiano Ronaldo in his years as a professional. However, it did not earn him the vote for France Football over Messi. Another treble, this one by Luis Enrique, denied him the prize. However, the Portuguese scored four goals and seven assists more than the Argentinian.

We saw justice in Neymar's Ballon d'Or and the first appearance of a player to amass more merit by assisting than scoring: Kevin de Bruyne, who hit the ceiling at Wolfsburg with 15 goals and 25 assists. 

2016 

By voting    By performance

1 Cristiano | 1 Luis Suárez (9,42)

2 Messi      | 2 Ibrahimovic (8.87)

3 Griezmann | 3 Cristiano (8,76)

4 Luis Suárez | 4 Higuaín (8,64)

Luis Suarez framed his great season with the Golden Shoe. 40 goals in La Liga (fifth best 'Pichichi' in history) for a total of 48 and 21 assists. An offensive torrent that had to remain in the shadow of the two gods and Griezmann, who to his merits in the Atleti (finalist of Champions) added the recognitions of better player and maximum scorer of the Euros of France, in which his national team was a finalist. 

Cristiano, as a double European champion, with Real Madrid and Portugal, won the prize. But it was not only the Barça striker who performed better, but also Ibrahimovic, who scored 43 goals and 17 assists for PSG to seal the best year of his career. 

2017

By voting    By performance

1 Cristiano | 1 Messi

2 Messi     | 2 Cristiano 

3 Neymar  | 3 Lewandowski

4 Buffon    | 4 Cavani

Like a fine wine, Messi his highest score in the report (9.31 points) at 29. 48 goals and 12 assists were accounted for. In the last year of the 'MSN', he stood out at an ndividual level, although the farewell of Luis Enrique only left as a result the Copa del Rey and the Super Cup of Spain. For that reason, he was not given the award.  

Cristiano (37 goals and 11 assists) repeated his Champions League feat and position as the maximum scorer, so he did not find a rival in the voting and managed to equal Messi's five trophies. 

Even Lewandowski (38) and Cavani (43) scored more goals than the Portuguese, but by weighting all the offensive variables were left behind. 

2018 

By voting  By performance

1 Modric | 1 Cristiano (8,82)

2 Cristiano | 2 Cavani (8,58)

3 Griezmann | 3 Kane (8.54)

4 Mbappé | 4 Messi (8.53)

This year it perfectly reflects the power of goals. The real winner, Luka Modric, would not even be among the top-ranked players; his more intangible merits in winning the Champions and the runner-up spot in the World Cup are not so much reflected in the figures. On the other hand, the top scorer during the World Cup, Harry Kane, would be in the podium after a year crowned with 43 goals. 

In addition, Cristiano would have recovered the Ballon d'Or lost against Luis Suárez. He was 'Pichichi' and winner of the Champions. Had he done more in the World Cup (he lost in the round of sixteen against Uruguay), he would have surely taken the title away from his teammate. 

After six consecutive years with the winner surpassing the 9 points, in this campaign there was a setback, since the luso counted 8,82. 

2019 

By voting    By performance

1 Messi     | 1 Messi (8.67)

2 Van Dijk | 2 Cristiano (8,31)

3 Cristiano | 3 Pépé (8,23)

4 Mané     | 4 Lewandowski (8,22)

Everyone expected someone from Liverpool, the Champions League champions, to take the award last year. None of them had been particularly outstanding, so the pools were focused on Van Dijk, the defensive pillar. However, Messi's leadership weighed more heavily. 

His numbers were impeccable: 49 goals and 17 assists in the competitions studied, his fourth-best year. Nobody from Liverpool amassed numbers to be among the first, not even those of the trident. However, Pépé's numbers were outstanding (22 goals and 11 assists) and he should have been awarded the Bronze Ball. 

Doubts in the actual process can also be seen in the fact that Messi generated 8.67 points, the lowest of the 12 seasons analysed. 

Lewandowski, on his way to a golden bath

No one knows what will happen this year. The fact that the Bundesliga has started earlier can be seen in the top positions. However, the favourites will have to be at their most vigilant in the final stretch if they are to overtake Lewandowski.

The Pole (9.28 points) is completing the best year of his life. He has 44 goals and five assists. As if that wasn't enough, Bayern are in a sweet mood and are aiming for a treble. If the collective results come in, he is seriously considering taking his first Ballon d'Or. He could also add the Golden Shoe to his list of honours.

In second place would be Ciro Immobile (8.78), current 'capocannoniere' of Serie A, and Timo Werner (29 goals and 10 assists) would be third.

There is no podium for Cristiano (would be fourth) or Messi (sixth), and among the most advantageous positions we would see pleasant surprises such as Sabitzer (fifth after 13 goals and 8 assists), Raul Jimenez (seventh, with 16 goals and nine assists) or Pavard, who would be in ninth place.