Winterthur vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
26.3%
Win probability
1.14
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.5%
4-1
0.7%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.4%
2-0
4%
3-1
2.5%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
7.1%
1-0
7%
2-1
6.6%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
16%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.4%
49.3%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
0-1
10.2%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
23.2%
0-2
8.4%
1-3
5.2%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
15%
0-3
4.6%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
7.2%
0-4
1.9%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.7%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+28%
+14%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
32
7º
10º
9º
57
2º
10º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
74 | 74 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
58 | 58 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
3º
|
57 | 57 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
50 | 50 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
47 | 47 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
45 | 45 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
44 | 44 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
|
9º
|
32 | 32 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
31 | 31 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase (2nd r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 100% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Winterthur
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul. 2022 |
STG
2 - 0
WIN
66%
19%
15%
|
66 | 77 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2022 |
WIN
1 - 1
BAS
16%
21%
64%
|
66 | 83 | 17 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 2022 |
WIN
3 - 0
SCB
84%
11%
5%
|
66 | 45 | 21 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2022 |
ALT
1 - 1
WIN
46%
24%
29%
|
66 | 71 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 2022 |
WIN
3 - 0
SCH
45%
23%
32%
|
66 | 65 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul. 2022 |
GCZ
2 - 1
LUG
30%
25%
45%
|
76 | 69 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2022 |
LUG
2 - 3
SIO
49%
25%
26%
|
76 | 71 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 2022 |
LUG
1 - 4
INT
5%
19%
76%
|
77 | 93 | 16 | -1 |
| 30 Jun. 2022 |
LUG
0 - 1
ING
68%
19%
12%
|
77 | 59 | 18 | 0 |
| 28 Jun. 2022 |
KAI
3 - 4
LUG
22%
23%
55%
|
77 | 66 | 11 | 0 |