Watford vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.7%
Win probability
2.01
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.2%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.6%
3-0
8.2%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
12%
2-0
12.2%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.1%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.8%
20.3%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.3%
14%
Win probability
0.8
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
9.9%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-9%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Watford
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Feb. 2021 |
PNE
0 - 1
WAT
27%
28%
44%
|
79 | 66 | 13 | 0 |
| 13 Feb. 2021 |
WAT
6 - 0
BRI
62%
22%
17%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | 0 |
| 06 Feb. 2021 |
COV
0 - 0
WAT
23%
28%
49%
|
79 | 65 | 14 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2021 |
WAT
1 - 2
QPR
73%
18%
9%
|
79 | 63 | 16 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2021 |
MIL
0 - 0
WAT
24%
28%
48%
|
79 | 67 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Feb. 2021 |
WYC
1 - 2
DER
30%
27%
43%
|
66 | 58 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 Feb. 2021 |
DER
2 - 1
MID
38%
28%
34%
|
66 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2021 |
ROT
3 - 0
DER
42%
26%
32%
|
67 | 63 | 4 | -1 |
| 30 Jan. 2021 |
DER
1 - 0
BRI
33%
27%
40%
|
66 | 70 | 4 | +1 |
| 23 Jan. 2021 |
QPR
0 - 1
DER
45%
25%
30%
|
66 | 63 | 3 | 0 |