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Championship. Matchday 31

Watford vs Derby County analysis

Watford Derby County
64 ELO 60
30% Tilt -23%
375º General ELO ranking 545º
25º Country ELO ranking 30º
ELO win probability
68.2%
Watford
20.1%
Draw
11.7%
Derby County

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.2%
Win probability
Watford
1.98
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
4.5%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
5.8%
3-0
9.1%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
12.6%
2-0
13.8%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21%
1-0
13.9%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.5%
20.1%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
20.1%
11.7%
Win probability
Derby County
0.67
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.7%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.4%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
Watford
-10%
-46%
Derby County

Basic stats

51
49
POS
7
4
SOT
3
10
COR
2
1
GF
1
2
GC
64
60
ELO
2
0.7
EXP
Key
POS
Ball possession
SOT
Total shots
COR
Corners
GF
Goals for
GC
Goals against
ELO
Team's ELO rating
EXP
Expected goals for the team

Points and table prediction

Watford
Their league position
Derby County
CURR.POS.
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
91
44
17º
24º
21º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
21º
Current table Final expectations
PK PTS. PTS. RK PROB
Norwich City
97
97
100%
Watford
91
91
100%
Brentford
87
87
100%
Swansea City
80
80
100%
Barnsley
78
78
100%
AFC Bournemouth
77
77
100%
Reading
70
70
100%
Cardiff City
68
68
50%
Queens Park Rangers
68
68
50%
Middlesbrough
10º
64
64
10º
100%
Millwall
11º
62
62
11º
50%
Luton Town
12º
62
62
12º
50%
Preston North End
13º
61
61
13º
100%
Stoke City
14º
60
60
14º
100%
Blackburn Rovers
15º
57
57
15º
100%
Coventry City
16º
55
55
16º
100%
Nottingham Forest
17º
52
52
17º
50%
Birmingham City
18º
52
52
18º
50%
Bristol City
19º
51
51
19º
100%
Huddersfield Town
20º
49
49
20º
100%
Derby County
21º
44
44
21º
100%
Wycombe Wanderers
22º
43
43
22º
100%
Rotherham United
23º
42
42
23º
100%
Sheffield Wednesday
24º
41
41
24º
100%
Expected probabilities
Watford
Derby County
Champion
0% 0%
Promotion
100% 0%
Promotion playoffs
0% 0%
Mid-table
0% 100%
Relegation
0% 0%

ELO progression

Derby County
DER
Watford
WAT
Huddersfield Town
HUR
Blackburn Rovers
BBU
Swansea City
SWA
Nottingham Forest
NTT
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Watford
Watford
1%
X%
2%
ELO WAT ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
19 Feb. 2021
WAT
Watford
2 - 1
Derby County
DER
55%
25%
20%
1610 1375 235 +5
16 Feb. 2021
THE
Preston North End
0 - 1
Watford
WAT
41%
28%
31%
1605 1388 -217 +6
13 Feb. 2021
WAT
Watford
6 - 0
Bristol City
BRI
55%
25%
20%
1595 1353 242 +10
06 Feb. 2021
THE
Coventry City
0 - 0
Watford
WAT
29%
26%
45%
1598 770 -828 -3
01 Feb. 2021
WAT
Watford
1 - 2
Queens Park Rangers
QPR
57%
23%
20%
1607 1134 473 -9

Matches

Derby County
Derby County
1%
X%
2%
ELO DER ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
19 Feb. 2021
WAT
Watford
2 - 1
Derby County
DER
55%
25%
20%
1375 1610 235 -5
16 Feb. 2021
WYC
Wycombe Wanderers
1 - 2
Derby County
DER
28%
26%
46%
1373 514 -859 +3
13 Feb. 2021
DER
Derby County
2 - 1
Middlesbrough
MID
47%
27%
26%
1367 1407 -40 +6
03 Feb. 2021
ROT
Rotherham United
3 - 0
Derby County
DER
31%
27%
42%
1382 778 -604 -15
30 Jan. 2021
DER
Derby County
1 - 0
Bristol City
BRI
47%
27%
26%
1376 1379 -3 +6