Watford vs Arsenal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
22.2%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.6%
2-0
3.4%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.6%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
5.6%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.5%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.7%
53.1%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
0-1
12.2%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.7%
0-2
10%
1-3
5.2%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
16.3%
0-3
5.4%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
7.9%
0-4
2.2%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Watford
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan. 2002 |
WAT
1 - 4
MIL
50%
24%
26%
|
69 | 72 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 2001 |
WAL
0 - 3
WAT
39%
26%
35%
|
68 | 60 | 8 | +1 |
| 22 Dec. 2001 |
WAT
1 - 1
WOL
57%
23%
20%
|
68 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 2001 |
SHW
4 - 0
WAT
43%
25%
33%
|
70 | 65 | 5 | -2 |
| 15 Dec. 2001 |
WAT
1 - 0
CRY
60%
21%
19%
|
70 | 66 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec. 2001 |
ARS
2 - 1
MID
77%
15%
8%
|
89 | 79 | 10 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2001 |
ARS
2 - 1
CHL
58%
22%
20%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 2001 |
LIV
1 - 2
ARS
53%
24%
23%
|
89 | 90 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Dec. 2001 |
ARS
1 - 3
NEW
67%
19%
14%
|
89 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2001 |
WHU
1 - 1
ARS
28%
27%
45%
|
89 | 80 | 9 | 0 |