Conmebol Sudamericana . Last 16
Global 2-5
Vitória vs River Plate Montevideo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.1%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.3%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.8%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.9%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.6%
22.5%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
10%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
22.5%
28.4%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
15.9%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.1%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Vitória
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep. 2009 |
BOT
1 - 3
VIT
66%
19%
14%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2009 |
RIV
4 - 1
VIT
61%
21%
19%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | -1 |
| 19 Sep. 2009 |
VIT
2 - 0
SCI
32%
25%
44%
|
75 | 86 | 11 | +1 |
| 13 Sep. 2009 |
VIT
3 - 2
PAL
36%
26%
38%
|
75 | 85 | 10 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2009 |
GRE
1 - 1
VIT
66%
20%
14%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | +1 |
Matches
River Plate Montevideo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep. 2009 |
RIV
1 - 0
NAC
50%
23%
26%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2009 |
RIV
4 - 1
VIT
61%
21%
19%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | +1 |
| 19 Sep. 2009 |
DAN
2 - 2
RIV
45%
24%
31%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 2009 |
RIV
1 - 1
JUN
77%
15%
8%
|
77 | 60 | 17 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 2009 |
CEN
2 - 2
RIV
26%
25%
49%
|
77 | 64 | 13 | 0 |