Villa Nova vs Comercial analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.7%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.5%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.8%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.5%
1-0
13.2%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.4%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
7.8%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.1%
19.2%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
13%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-17%
-23%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Villa Nova
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov. 1979 |
CSA
1 - 0
VIL
58%
24%
18%
|
69 | 71 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1979 |
BOT
4 - 2
VIL
57%
25%
19%
|
70 | 71 | 1 | -1 |
| 01 Nov. 1979 |
VIL
1 - 2
ECG
32%
28%
40%
|
70 | 80 | 10 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 1979 |
TUN
0 - 1
VIL
47%
27%
26%
|
70 | 63 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 1979 |
VIL
0 - 0
CAM
60%
22%
18%
|
70 | 62 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov. 1979 |
COM
1 - 0
USC
42%
28%
30%
|
65 | 75 | 10 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 1978 |
OPE
1 - 0
COM
71%
19%
10%
|
62 | 79 | 17 | +3 |
| 22 Jun. 1978 |
BOT
3 - 0
COM
80%
14%
6%
|
62 | 80 | 18 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 1978 |
BOT
1 - 0
COM
80%
14%
6%
|
63 | 80 | 17 | -1 |
| 13 Jun. 1978 |
COM
2 - 2
JUV
37%
28%
35%
|
62 | 74 | 12 | +1 |