Copa Libertadores . Last 16
Global 3-3
Vasco da Gama vs Lanús analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.9%
Win probability
1.71
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.5%
3-0
6%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.7%
2-0
10.5%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.2%
1-0
12.4%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.9%
20.2%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.4%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Vasco da Gama
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr. 2012 |
BOT
3 - 1
VAS
47%
24%
29%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2012 |
FLA
2 - 3
VAS
36%
26%
38%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2012 |
NOV
1 - 3
VAS
9%
18%
73%
|
83 | 49 | 34 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2012 |
NAC
0 - 1
VAS
36%
24%
40%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | +1 |
| 07 Apr. 2012 |
VAS
1 - 2
FLA
61%
22%
18%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Lanús
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Apr. 2012 |
LAN
3 - 1
RAC
58%
24%
18%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 2012 |
VEL
0 - 0
LAN
56%
25%
20%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2012 |
LAN
1 - 0
RAF
54%
24%
22%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2012 |
FLA
3 - 0
LAN
35%
26%
39%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2012 |
COL
1 - 0
LAN
40%
27%
33%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |