Conmebol Sudamericana . 1/16
Global 3-0
Univ de Chile vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.2%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.2%
3-0
3.9%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.2%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.6%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.2%
24.8%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.8%
30.1%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
0-1
7.4%
1-2
7.3%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17.5%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.4%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Univ de Chile
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep. 2011 |
USF
0 - 3
UCH
36%
27%
37%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2011 |
NUB
1 - 4
UCH
30%
27%
44%
|
76 | 65 | 11 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2011 |
UCH
2 - 0
UCO
56%
23%
21%
|
76 | 71 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2011 |
SAN
0 - 2
UCH
39%
26%
35%
|
76 | 69 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2011 |
UNI
0 - 1
UCH
50%
24%
26%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep. 2011 |
DAN
1 - 1
NAC
34%
26%
40%
|
81 | 71 | 10 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2011 |
NAC
3 - 2
RAC
73%
18%
9%
|
81 | 68 | 13 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 2011 |
CER
0 - 0
NAC
30%
27%
43%
|
81 | 71 | 10 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2011 |
NAC
2 - 2
DEF
57%
23%
19%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2011 |
RIV
3 - 3
NAC
41%
25%
34%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | 0 |