Ulm vs Erzgebirge Aue analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
11.1%
Win probability
0.8
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.6%
2-0
1.4%
3-1
0.9%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.5%
1-0
3.5%
2-1
3.2%
3-2
1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
7.9%
17.2%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.2%
71.7%
Win probability
2.33
Expected goals
0-1
10.3%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
23.2%
0-2
11.9%
1-3
7.4%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
21.2%
0-3
9.2%
1-4
4.3%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
-3
14.4%
0-4
5.4%
1-5
2%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
7.7%
0-5
2.5%
1-6
0.8%
2-7
0.1%
-5
3.4%
0-6
1%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
1.3%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ulm
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 2020 |
ULM
2 - 0
ELV
35%
26%
40%
|
46 | 52 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2020 |
KOB
0 - 0
ULM
10%
18%
72%
|
45 | 22 | 23 | +1 |
| 03 Mar. 2020 |
ULM
2 - 1
STE
40%
25%
36%
|
46 | 50 | 4 | -1 |
| 22 Feb. 2020 |
PIR
0 - 0
ULM
21%
23%
56%
|
46 | 36 | 10 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2020 |
GOP
0 - 3
ULM
14%
20%
66%
|
47 | 31 | 16 | -1 |
Matches
Erzgebirge Aue
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 2020 |
ERZ
0 - 1
SGD
49%
24%
27%
|
67 | 61 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2020 |
ERZ
3 - 1
MAG
51%
24%
25%
|
67 | 61 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2020 |
ERZ
4 - 0
POG
33%
26%
41%
|
67 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2020 |
ERZ
0 - 1
OFC
74%
17%
9%
|
67 | 47 | 20 | 0 |
| 28 Jun. 2020 |
SSV
1 - 2
ERZ
49%
24%
27%
|
66 | 67 | 1 | +1 |