Uganda Police vs Mbarara City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62%
Win probability
2.04
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2%
4-0
3.5%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.2%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.1%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.9%
1-0
10%
2-1
10%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.9%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
20.7%
17.3%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11.4%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-21%
-48%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Uganda Police
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Apr. 2025 |
BRI
3 - 1
UGA
28%
25%
46%
|
37 | 31 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2025 |
UGA
0 - 1
KIT
49%
23%
28%
|
38 | 38 | 0 | -1 |
| 17 Mar. 2025 |
MFC
0 - 1
UGA
35%
27%
39%
|
38 | 37 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2025 |
EXP
1 - 2
UGA
39%
25%
36%
|
37 | 35 | 2 | +1 |
| 06 Mar. 2025 |
UGA
0 - 1
VIP
51%
23%
26%
|
38 | 38 | 0 | -1 |
Matches
Mbarara City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Apr. 2025 |
MCF
0 - 2
URA
30%
27%
43%
|
32 | 37 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2025 |
MCF
0 - 0
BUL
30%
27%
42%
|
31 | 38 | 7 | +1 |
| 14 Mar. 2025 |
KIT
1 - 1
MCF
69%
17%
14%
|
31 | 37 | 6 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 2025 |
MCF
0 - 0
BRI
38%
27%
35%
|
30 | 33 | 3 | +1 |
| 02 Mar. 2025 |
VIP
1 - 0
MCF
67%
19%
15%
|
31 | 38 | 7 | -1 |