Thun vs Basel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
20%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.5%
2-0
2.9%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.1%
1-0
5.8%
2-1
5.3%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
13%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.6%
57.4%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
0-1
10.8%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
24.2%
0-2
10%
1-3
6.1%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
17.7%
0-3
6.2%
1-4
2.8%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
9.5%
0-4
2.8%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4%
0-5
1%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.4%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Nov. 2008 |
THU
2 - 1
LOC
74%
17%
9%
|
64 | 48 | 16 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2008 |
BIE
3 - 2
THU
22%
25%
53%
|
65 | 54 | 11 | -1 |
| 03 Nov. 2008 |
THU
2 - 4
YVE
68%
20%
12%
|
66 | 54 | 12 | -1 |
| 25 Oct. 2008 |
STA
0 - 2
THU
19%
23%
58%
|
66 | 49 | 17 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2008 |
BAV
0 - 1
THU
14%
19%
67%
|
67 | 41 | 26 | -1 |
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Nov. 2008 |
BAS
1 - 1
ZUR
50%
23%
26%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2008 |
FCV
0 - 2
BAS
18%
22%
60%
|
84 | 61 | 23 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2008 |
FCB
1 - 1
BAS
77%
15%
8%
|
83 | 94 | 11 | +1 |
| 30 Oct. 2008 |
BAS
3 - 0
SIO
66%
19%
15%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2008 |
BEL
2 - 3
BAS
24%
24%
52%
|
83 | 68 | 15 | 0 |