Swansea University vs Abergavenny Town analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35.1%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.8%
3-0
2.2%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
4.8%
2-0
3.9%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
0.1%
+2
10.4%
1-0
4.5%
2-1
7.5%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
17.4%
21.7%
Draw
0-0
2.6%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
7.2%
3-3
2.6%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.7%
43.2%
Win probability
1.92
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
4.6%
3-4
1.3%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
19.4%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
5.3%
2-4
2.2%
3-5
0.5%
4-6
0.1%
-2
12.9%
0-3
3.1%
1-4
2.6%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
6.7%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
2.8%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+14%
-39%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
26
9º
16º
15º
32
7º
15º
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
13º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
78 | 78 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
60 | 60 |
2º
|
0% | |
|
3º
|
60 | 60 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
52 | 52 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
47 | 47 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
47 | 47 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
45 | 45 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
38 | 38 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
35 | 35 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
33 | 33 |
10º
|
0% | |
|
11º
|
33 | 33 |
11º
|
0% | |
|
12º
|
32 | 32 |
12º
|
0% | |
|
|
13º
|
32 | 32 |
13º
|
0% | |
|
14º
|
28 | 28 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
|
15º
|
26 | 26 |
15º
|
100% | |
|
16º
|
24 | 24 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Swansea University
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb. 2023 |
YAF
2 - 1
SUF
36%
22%
42%
|
28 | 23 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2023 |
SUF
0 - 1
LLA
21%
19%
60%
|
29 | 40 | 11 | -1 |
| 27 Jan. 2023 |
SUF
2 - 1
AAF
51%
21%
28%
|
28 | 29 | 1 | +1 |
| 14 Jan. 2023 |
SUF
1 - 1
TAF
25%
20%
56%
|
28 | 36 | 8 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2023 |
BAR
5 - 0
SUF
85%
11%
4%
|
28 | 54 | 26 | 0 |
Matches
Abergavenny Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Feb. 2023 |
ABE
1 - 0
TAF
31%
21%
48%
|
31 | 35 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2023 |
CAM
1 - 3
ABE
81%
11%
7%
|
28 | 42 | 14 | +3 |
| 03 Feb. 2023 |
ABE
0 - 1
BAR
9%
18%
73%
|
28 | 53 | 25 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2023 |
TRE
1 - 3
ABE
68%
17%
16%
|
27 | 34 | 7 | +1 |
| 07 Jan. 2023 |
LID
1 - 1
ABE
82%
11%
7%
|
26 | 42 | 16 | +1 |