Swansea City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
14.4%
Win probability
0.64
Expected goals
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.6%
2-0
2.1%
3-1
0.7%
4-2
0.1%
+2
3%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
3.5%
3-2
0.6%
4-3
0.1%
+1
10.7%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
10.3%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
2.8%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
24.2%
61.4%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
0-1
16.8%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
27.2%
0-2
13.7%
1-3
4.8%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0%
-2
19.2%
0-3
7.5%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
9.6%
0-4
3%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.7%
0-5
1%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.2%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Swansea City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan. 1999 |
SWA
1 - 0
WHU
13%
24%
63%
|
52 | 79 | 27 | 0 |
| 09 Jan. 1999 |
EXE
4 - 0
SWA
38%
27%
36%
|
54 | 47 | 7 | -2 |
| 02 Jan. 1999 |
WHU
1 - 1
SWA
83%
12%
5%
|
53 | 80 | 27 | +1 |
| 28 Dec. 1998 |
SWA
2 - 1
BAR
56%
25%
19%
|
53 | 48 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1998 |
LEY
1 - 1
SWA
51%
25%
24%
|
53 | 54 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan. 1999 |
DER
1 - 0
BBU
50%
25%
25%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Jan. 1999 |
WIM
2 - 1
DER
53%
25%
22%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Jan. 1999 |
PLY
0 - 3
DER
15%
24%
61%
|
79 | 51 | 28 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 1998 |
DER
2 - 1
MID
52%
24%
24%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | +1 |
| 26 Dec. 1998 |
EVE
0 - 0
DER
47%
26%
26%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |