SK Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
43.9%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.8%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.6%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.1%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.6%
26%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26%
30.1%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
8.5%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.3%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
23
6º
9º
7º
34
2º
6º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
61 | 82 |
1º
|
45.5% | |
|
1º
|
64 | 82 |
2º
|
45.5% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 59 |
3º
|
65.5% | |
|
4º
|
38 | 56 |
4º
|
54% | |
|
|
5º
|
34 | 49 |
5º
|
69.5% | |
|
6º
|
27 | 38 |
6º
|
41.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
23 | 35 |
7º
|
25% | |
|
8º
|
21 | 35 |
8º
|
20.5% | |
|
9º
|
20 | 32 |
9º
|
22% | |
|
10º
|
18 | 30 |
10º
|
47% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 3% |
|
Mid-table
|
70% | 97% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
19.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
10.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
SK Super Nova
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 May. 2025 |
GRO
1 - 1
SUP
53%
22%
25%
|
65 | 65 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2025 |
SUP
0 - 0
FKJ
48%
24%
28%
|
65 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2025 |
SUP
1 - 1
FKT
44%
23%
33%
|
65 | 65 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2025 |
SUP
1 - 1
AUD
31%
26%
43%
|
64 | 76 | 12 | +1 |
| 06 May. 2025 |
FSM
0 - 2
SUP
49%
24%
26%
|
63 | 65 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
BFC Daugavpils
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 May. 2025 |
BFC
1 - 0
FKJ
55%
24%
21%
|
69 | 66 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2025 |
AUD
1 - 1
BFC
55%
25%
20%
|
69 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 May. 2025 |
BFC
0 - 1
CAR
31%
25%
44%
|
69 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 09 May. 2025 |
RIG
5 - 1
BFC
62%
22%
16%
|
70 | 76 | 6 | -1 |
| 04 May. 2025 |
GRO
1 - 0
BFC
40%
25%
35%
|
70 | 61 | 9 | 0 |