Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.9%
2-0
5.7%
3-1
3.5%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.1%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
8%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.5%
25.6%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.6%
39.4%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
8.6%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
20.9%
0-2
6.5%
1-3
4%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.6%
0-3
3.1%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.8%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.6%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+18%
-9%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
69
1º
10º
1º
62
1º
4º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
69 | 72 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
62 | 65 |
2º
|
97.5% | |
|
3º
|
60 | 61 |
3º
|
97.5% | |
|
4º
|
54 | 55 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
50 | 51 |
5º
|
40.5% | |
|
6º
|
50 | 51 |
6º
|
34% | |
|
7º
|
47 | 48 |
7º
|
42.5% | |
|
8º
|
46 | 47 |
8º
|
44.5% | |
|
10º
|
45 | 46 |
9º
|
22% | |
|
9º
|
45 | 45 |
10º
|
31.5% | |
|
11º
|
43 | 44 |
11º
|
16.5% | |
|
12º
|
43 | 44 |
12º
|
16.5% | |
|
13º
|
43 | 44 |
13º
|
23.5% | |
|
14º
|
40 | 43 |
14º
|
66.5% | |
|
15º
|
37 | 38 |
15º
|
88.5% | |
|
16º
|
36 | 36 |
16º
|
93.5% | |
|
17º
|
29 | 30 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
18º
|
19 | 19 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
100% | 97.5% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 2.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Spartak Varna
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep. 2023 |
DUN
0 - 1
SVA
38%
26%
36%
|
63 | 59 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2023 |
SVA
3 - 1
FCF
86%
10%
4%
|
62 | 20 | 42 | +1 |
| 03 Sep. 2023 |
SVA
2 - 0
MAR
56%
23%
21%
|
62 | 56 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 2023 |
SVA
4 - 0
MAR
59%
23%
18%
|
61 | 56 | 5 | +1 |
| 20 Aug. 2023 |
BEL
2 - 0
SVA
20%
25%
55%
|
61 | 50 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Septemvri Sofia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 2023 |
SEP
2 - 0
BEL
82%
13%
5%
|
67 | 49 | 18 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 2023 |
NES
2 - 4
SEP
16%
19%
65%
|
67 | 49 | 18 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2023 |
BDI
1 - 2
SEP
11%
21%
68%
|
66 | 48 | 18 | +1 |
| 28 Aug. 2023 |
SEP
0 - 1
CHE
80%
14%
6%
|
67 | 50 | 17 | -1 |
| 22 Aug. 2023 |
YAN
3 - 2
SEP
23%
25%
52%
|
68 | 57 | 11 | -1 |