FA Cup . 1/32
Global 4-4
Southampton vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.9%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.4%
3-0
6%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.7%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.2%
1-0
12.7%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.1%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.1%
20%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.4%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.9%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Southampton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jan. 2019 |
LEI
1 - 2
SOU
59%
24%
17%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 2019 |
DER
2 - 2
SOU
36%
27%
37%
|
80 | 72 | 8 | 0 |
| 02 Jan. 2019 |
CHL
0 - 0
SOU
75%
17%
8%
|
80 | 89 | 9 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2018 |
SOU
1 - 3
MAC
11%
19%
70%
|
80 | 91 | 11 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 2018 |
SOU
1 - 2
WHU
32%
25%
42%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan. 2019 |
LEE
2 - 0
DER
35%
27%
38%
|
72 | 68 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 2019 |
DER
2 - 2
SOU
36%
27%
37%
|
72 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 2019 |
DER
1 - 1
MID
47%
26%
27%
|
72 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 2018 |
NOR
3 - 4
DER
53%
24%
23%
|
71 | 74 | 3 | +1 |
| 26 Dec. 2018 |
SHE
3 - 1
DER
39%
27%
34%
|
72 | 70 | 2 | -1 |