Serrano FC vs Duque de Caxias analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
34.6%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
2.4%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.1%
+3
3.2%
2-0
6.4%
3-1
2.7%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
9.6%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
7.4%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.7%
28.6%
Draw
0-0
10.4%
1-1
13.3%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
28.6%
36.8%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
12%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
21.5%
0-2
6.9%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
10.4%
0-3
2.7%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.1%
-3
3.6%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-9%
-29%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Serrano FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Sep. 2025 |
CGA
1 - 1
SFC
35%
27%
38%
|
49 | 44 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2024 |
PAD
1 - 0
SFC
43%
26%
32%
|
50 | 52 | 2 | -1 |
| 06 Nov. 2024 |
SFC
2 - 2
PER
39%
28%
33%
|
50 | 49 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2024 |
NCI
3 - 2
SFC
32%
24%
44%
|
52 | 42 | 10 | -2 |
| 26 Oct. 2024 |
SFC
0 - 2
SAO
38%
27%
35%
|
53 | 50 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
Duque de Caxias
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Sep. 2025 |
DUQ
1 - 0
PET
37%
27%
36%
|
52 | 53 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2025 |
MAD
0 - 1
DUQ
58%
25%
18%
|
51 | 59 | 8 | +1 |
| 30 Jul. 2025 |
DUQ
0 - 2
MAD
26%
26%
48%
|
53 | 58 | 5 | -2 |
| 12 Jul. 2025 |
DUQ
0 - 0
CAB
37%
26%
37%
|
53 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Jul. 2025 |
PER
1 - 0
DUQ
32%
28%
40%
|
54 | 46 | 8 | -1 |