Sergipe vs Itabuna analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.3%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.7%
3-0
3.9%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.9%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
14%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.4%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.3%
30.4%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
0-1
6%
1-2
7.3%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.9%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.7%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-23%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sergipe
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 May. 1978 |
VOL
1 - 0
SER
64%
22%
14%
|
52 | 64 | 12 | 0 |
| 21 May. 1978 |
CON
2 - 1
SER
66%
21%
13%
|
53 | 63 | 10 | -1 |
| 14 May. 1978 |
ITA
2 - 1
SER
62%
22%
16%
|
53 | 58 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 May. 1978 |
SER
0 - 5
VAS
12%
22%
67%
|
54 | 87 | 33 | -1 |
| 30 Apr. 1978 |
CON
1 - 1
SER
68%
20%
12%
|
53 | 65 | 12 | +1 |
Matches
Itabuna
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 May. 1978 |
CRB
1 - 0
ITA
69%
19%
12%
|
58 | 69 | 11 | 0 |
| 24 May. 1978 |
ITA
1 - 1
CSA
49%
26%
26%
|
58 | 63 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 May. 1978 |
VOL
1 - 0
ITA
56%
24%
20%
|
58 | 63 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 May. 1978 |
ITA
2 - 1
SER
62%
22%
16%
|
58 | 53 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 May. 1978 |
BAH
3 - 1
ITA
76%
15%
9%
|
58 | 84 | 26 | 0 |