South Africa vs Uganda analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
61.2%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.1%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
10%
2-0
12.7%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19%
1-0
14.6%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26.2%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
8.5%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
23.2%
15.6%
Win probability
0.74
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
4%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
11.2%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+14%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
South Africa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug. 2025 |
NIG
0 - 0
RSA
13%
20%
67%
|
80 | 59 | 21 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2025 |
RSA
2 - 1
GUI
55%
25%
20%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 2025 |
ALG
1 - 1
RSA
66%
19%
15%
|
80 | 86 | 6 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2025 |
RSA
1 - 1
ANG
51%
27%
22%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Jun. 2025 |
ANG
3 - 0
RSA
28%
25%
47%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Uganda
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug. 2025 |
UGA
2 - 0
NIG
56%
24%
20%
|
69 | 60 | 9 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 2025 |
GUI
0 - 3
UGA
60%
22%
18%
|
68 | 74 | 6 | +1 |
| 04 Aug. 2025 |
UGA
0 - 3
ALG
14%
23%
63%
|
68 | 86 | 18 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2025 |
SEN
1 - 2
UGA
75%
17%
8%
|
67 | 87 | 20 | +1 |
| 22 Jul. 2025 |
TAN
1 - 0
UGA
33%
27%
40%
|
68 | 63 | 5 | -1 |