WC Qual. Africa 1ra y 2da Ronda. Semi-finals
Global 1-3
Sao Tome and Principe vs Ethiopia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
11.2%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.6%
2-0
1.4%
3-1
0.9%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.5%
1-0
3.3%
2-1
3.3%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
7.9%
16.8%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
7.9%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
16.8%
72%
Win probability
2.39
Expected goals
0-1
9.5%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.7%
0-2
11.4%
1-3
7.6%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
21.1%
0-3
9.1%
1-4
4.5%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.1%
-3
14.6%
0-4
5.4%
1-5
2.2%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0%
-4
8%
0-5
2.6%
1-6
0.9%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
3.6%
0-6
1%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
1.4%
0-7
0.4%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sao Tome and Principe
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 2015 |
STP
0 - 3
MAR
9%
19%
72%
|
38 | 82 | 44 | 0 |
| 13 Jun. 2015 |
CPV
7 - 1
STP
85%
11%
4%
|
38 | 69 | 31 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2014 |
BEN
2 - 0
STP
77%
15%
8%
|
38 | 61 | 23 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2014 |
STP
0 - 2
BEN
14%
19%
66%
|
39 | 61 | 22 | -1 |
| 16 Jun. 2012 |
SLE
4 - 2
STP
76%
17%
7%
|
39 | 66 | 27 | 0 |
Matches
Ethiopia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep. 2015 |
BWA
2 - 3
ETH
45%
27%
28%
|
56 | 62 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2015 |
SYC
1 - 1
ETH
15%
19%
66%
|
56 | 40 | 16 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 2015 |
RWA
3 - 1
ETH
43%
26%
31%
|
57 | 59 | 2 | -1 |
| 04 Jul. 2015 |
KEN
0 - 0
ETH
40%
27%
34%
|
57 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 2015 |
ETH
2 - 0
KEN
42%
28%
30%
|
56 | 58 | 2 | +1 |