CHAN Segunda Ronda. Final
Global 3-3
Mozambique vs Madagascar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
27.5%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.6%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2.3%
2-0
4.5%
3-1
2.4%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
<0%
+2
7.4%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
6.6%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
17%
26.1%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
12.4%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.1%
46.4%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
0-1
11.6%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
23.5%
0-2
8.5%
1-3
4.5%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
14%
0-3
4.2%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
6.1%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.1%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Mozambique
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul. 2019 |
MDG
1 - 0
MOZ
50%
24%
25%
|
56 | 60 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 May. 2019 |
MOZ
1 - 1
MWI
38%
29%
34%
|
55 | 58 | 3 | +1 |
| 28 May. 2019 |
SYC
0 - 0
MOZ
14%
21%
65%
|
55 | 36 | 19 | 0 |
| 26 May. 2019 |
MOZ
1 - 2
NAM
27%
27%
46%
|
56 | 64 | 8 | -1 |
| 23 Mar. 2019 |
GNB
2 - 2
MOZ
23%
21%
56%
|
56 | 49 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Madagascar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul. 2019 |
MDG
1 - 0
MOZ
50%
24%
25%
|
60 | 56 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Jul. 2019 |
MDG
0 - 3
TUN
17%
24%
59%
|
61 | 81 | 20 | -1 |
| 07 Jul. 2019 |
MDG
2 - 2
COD
23%
24%
53%
|
61 | 73 | 12 | 0 |
| 30 Jun. 2019 |
MDG
2 - 0
NGA
14%
24%
62%
|
58 | 85 | 27 | +3 |
| 27 Jun. 2019 |
MDG
1 - 0
BDI
45%
25%
30%
|
57 | 57 | 0 | +1 |