Japan vs Ecuador analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.7%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.7%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.9%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.8%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.6%
22.9%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
22.9%
22.4%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Japan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep. 2022 |
JPN
2 - 0
USA
42%
25%
33%
|
88 | 90 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2022 |
JPN
3 - 0
KOR
45%
24%
32%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2022 |
JPN
0 - 0
CHN
73%
17%
11%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2022 |
JPN
6 - 0
HKG
92%
7%
1%
|
88 | 48 | 40 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 2022 |
JPN
0 - 3
TUN
73%
17%
10%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Ecuador
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep. 2022 |
SAU
0 - 0
ECU
23%
26%
51%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Jun. 2022 |
ECU
1 - 0
CPV
85%
11%
4%
|
88 | 66 | 22 | 0 |
| 06 Jun. 2022 |
MEX
0 - 0
ECU
54%
24%
23%
|
88 | 90 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Jun. 2022 |
ECU
1 - 0
NGA
65%
20%
15%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2022 |
ECU
1 - 1
ARG
20%
24%
55%
|
87 | 95 | 8 | +1 |