Italy vs Northern Ireland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
82.7%
Win probability
2.48
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.7%
6-0
1.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.1%
5-0
4.3%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
5.1%
4-0
8.7%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.2%
+4
10.7%
3-0
14.1%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
18.1%
2-0
17%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
23.6%
1-0
13.7%
2-1
7%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.1%
+1
22.1%
12.8%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
5.7%
2-2
1.5%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
12.8%
4.4%
Win probability
0.41
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
1.2%
2-3
0.2%
3-4
0%
-1
3.7%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.2%
2-4
0%
-2
0.7%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
-11%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Nov. 2020 |
BIH
0 - 2
ITA
18%
22%
59%
|
92 | 83 | 9 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 2020 |
ITA
2 - 0
POL
59%
22%
19%
|
91 | 88 | 3 | +1 |
| 11 Nov. 2020 |
ITA
4 - 0
EST
86%
11%
3%
|
91 | 65 | 26 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2020 |
ITA
1 - 1
NLD
39%
25%
36%
|
92 | 93 | 1 | -1 |
| 11 Oct. 2020 |
POL
0 - 0
ITA
33%
26%
41%
|
92 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Northern Ireland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Nov. 2020 |
NIR
1 - 1
ROU
22%
23%
54%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 2020 |
AUT
2 - 1
NIR
71%
19%
11%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | -1 |
| 12 Nov. 2020 |
NIR
1 - 2
SVK
33%
26%
41%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2020 |
NOR
1 - 0
NIR
64%
22%
14%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | -1 |
| 11 Oct. 2020 |
NIR
0 - 1
AUT
28%
25%
48%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |