UEFA Nations League . Semi-finals

Italy vs Spain analysis

Italy Spain
93 ELO 95
-5.2% Tilt -5.7%
32º General ELO ranking 11º
Country ELO ranking
ELO win probability
28.7%
Italy
23.7%
Draw
47.6%
Spain

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
28.7%
Win probability
Italy
1.28
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.9%
2-0
4.1%
3-1
3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
8.1%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
7%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
16.5%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
11%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.7%
47.6%
Win probability
Spain
1.71
Expected goals
0-1
8.6%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.1%
0-2
7.4%
1-3
5.4%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
14.4%
0-3
4.2%
1-4
2.3%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
7.1%
0-4
1.8%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.8%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
Italy
-4%
-1%
Spain

ELO progression

Italy
Spain
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Italy
Italy
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
08 Sep. 2021
ITA
Italy
5 - 0
Lithuania
LTU
88%
9%
3%
93 55 38 0
05 Sep. 2021
CHE
Switzerland
0 - 0
Italy
ITA
31%
26%
44%
93 89 4 0
02 Sep. 2021
ITA
Italy
1 - 1
Bulgaria
BGR
82%
13%
5%
93 79 14 0
11 Jul. 2021
ITA
Italy
1 - 1
England
ENG
36%
25%
39%
93 94 1 0
06 Jul. 2021
ITA
Italy
1 - 1
Spain
ESP
29%
24%
47%
93 95 2 0

Matches

Spain
Spain
1%
X%
2%
ELO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
08 Sep. 2021
XXK
Kosovo
0 - 2
Spain
ESP
6%
15%
79%
95 70 25 0
05 Sep. 2021
ESP
Spain
4 - 0
Georgia
GEO
91%
7%
2%
95 73 22 0
02 Sep. 2021
SWE
Sweden
2 - 1
Spain
ESP
13%
20%
67%
95 88 7 0
06 Jul. 2021
ITA
Italy
1 - 1
Spain
ESP
29%
24%
47%
95 93 2 0
02 Jul. 2021
CHE
Switzerland
1 - 1
Spain
ESP
19%
21%
60%
95 89 6 0
X