Italy vs Spain analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
29.1%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3%
2-0
4.2%
3-1
3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
8.2%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
7.1%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
16.8%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.9%
47%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
0-1
8.7%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.1%
0-2
7.3%
1-3
5.3%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
14.2%
0-3
4.1%
1-4
2.2%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
6.9%
0-4
1.7%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.6%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
-1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jul. 2021 |
BEL
1 - 2
ITA
57%
22%
21%
|
93 | 94 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2021 |
ITA
2 - 1
AUT
66%
20%
14%
|
93 | 85 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 Jun. 2021 |
ITA
1 - 0
WLS
71%
19%
10%
|
93 | 86 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Jun. 2021 |
ITA
3 - 0
CHE
55%
23%
22%
|
92 | 89 | 3 | +1 |
| 11 Jun. 2021 |
TUR
0 - 3
ITA
25%
24%
51%
|
92 | 87 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Spain
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jul. 2021 |
CHE
1 - 1
ESP
19%
21%
60%
|
95 | 89 | 6 | 0 |
| 28 Jun. 2021 |
HRV
3 - 5
ESP
18%
21%
61%
|
95 | 89 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 Jun. 2021 |
SVK
0 - 5
ESP
9%
16%
74%
|
95 | 84 | 11 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 2021 |
ESP
1 - 1
POL
77%
15%
9%
|
95 | 87 | 8 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 2021 |
ESP
0 - 0
SWE
75%
16%
9%
|
95 | 88 | 7 | 0 |