Italy vs Belgium analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
32.3%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.1%
3-0
2.1%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.6%
2-0
4.7%
3-1
3.5%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
9.3%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
7.6%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
17.8%
24%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24%
43.7%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
0-1
8.1%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.2%
0-2
6.6%
1-3
4.9%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
13.1%
0-3
3.6%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
6.1%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.3%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Oct. 2021 |
ITA
1 - 2
ESP
29%
24%
48%
|
93 | 95 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2021 |
ITA
5 - 0
LTU
88%
9%
3%
|
93 | 55 | 38 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2021 |
CHE
0 - 0
ITA
31%
26%
44%
|
93 | 89 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2021 |
ITA
1 - 1
BGR
82%
13%
5%
|
93 | 79 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 Jul. 2021 |
ITA
1 - 1
ENG
36%
25%
39%
|
93 | 94 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Belgium
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Oct. 2021 |
BEL
2 - 3
FRA
50%
23%
27%
|
94 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2021 |
BLR
0 - 1
BEL
2%
10%
88%
|
94 | 72 | 22 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2021 |
BEL
3 - 0
CZE
79%
13%
8%
|
94 | 87 | 7 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2021 |
EST
2 - 5
BEL
1%
11%
88%
|
94 | 65 | 29 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 2021 |
BEL
1 - 2
ITA
57%
22%
21%
|
94 | 93 | 1 | 0 |