England vs Italy analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.7%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.4%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.4%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.5%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.5%
22.8%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
6.4%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.4%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
England
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Jun. 2022 |
DEU
1 - 1
ENG
47%
22%
30%
|
94 | 93 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 2022 |
HUN
1 - 0
ENG
6%
16%
79%
|
94 | 83 | 11 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2022 |
ENG
3 - 0
CIV
80%
14%
6%
|
94 | 85 | 9 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2022 |
ENG
2 - 1
CHE
65%
20%
15%
|
94 | 90 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 2021 |
SMR
0 - 10
ENG
3%
12%
85%
|
94 | 17 | 77 | 0 |
Matches
Italy
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Jun. 2022 |
ITA
2 - 1
HUN
74%
17%
9%
|
92 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 2022 |
ITA
1 - 1
DEU
33%
24%
43%
|
92 | 93 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2022 |
ITA
0 - 3
ARG
33%
26%
41%
|
93 | 94 | 1 | -1 |
| 29 Mar. 2022 |
TUR
2 - 3
ITA
22%
26%
53%
|
92 | 86 | 6 | +1 |
| 24 Mar. 2022 |
ITA
0 - 1
MKD
82%
14%
4%
|
93 | 77 | 16 | -1 |