England vs Croatia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.7%
Win probability
2.02
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.8%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
6.2%
3-0
9.6%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.1%
2-0
14.2%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.5%
1-0
14.1%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.5%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
19.5%
10.8%
Win probability
0.64
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.1%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
England
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jun. 2003 |
ENG
2 - 1
SVK
79%
16%
5%
|
98 | 84 | 14 | 0 |
| 03 Jun. 2003 |
ENG
2 - 1
SCG
92%
7%
1%
|
98 | 78 | 20 | 0 |
| 22 May. 2003 |
ZAF
1 - 2
ENG
15%
24%
61%
|
98 | 83 | 15 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2003 |
ENG
2 - 0
TUR
74%
18%
8%
|
98 | 88 | 10 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2003 |
LIE
0 - 2
ENG
5%
18%
77%
|
98 | 12 | 86 | 0 |
Matches
Croatia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jun. 2003 |
EST
0 - 1
HRV
21%
25%
54%
|
92 | 72 | 20 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2003 |
SWE
1 - 2
HRV
60%
23%
17%
|
91 | 94 | 3 | +1 |
| 02 Apr. 2003 |
HRV
2 - 0
AND
91%
8%
2%
|
91 | 56 | 35 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2003 |
HRV
4 - 0
BEL
38%
26%
36%
|
91 | 93 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2003 |
HRV
0 - 0
POL
48%
25%
27%
|
91 | 90 | 1 | 0 |