Wales vs England analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
10.1%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.4%
2-0
1.3%
3-1
0.6%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.1%
1-0
3.9%
2-1
2.9%
3-2
0.7%
4-3
0.1%
+1
7.5%
17.9%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
17.9%
72%
Win probability
2.19
Expected goals
0-1
12.5%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.3%
0-2
13.7%
1-3
6.7%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
-2
21.7%
0-3
9.9%
1-4
3.7%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
14.2%
0-4
5.4%
1-5
1.6%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
7.3%
0-5
2.4%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
3%
0-6
0.9%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1.1%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Wales
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Nov. 2022 |
WLS
0 - 2
IRN
28%
26%
46%
|
85 | 89 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 2022 |
USA
1 - 1
WLS
70%
18%
12%
|
85 | 90 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
WLS
0 - 1
POL
28%
25%
48%
|
86 | 87 | 1 | -1 |
| 22 Sep. 2022 |
BEL
2 - 1
WLS
84%
11%
5%
|
86 | 93 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 2022 |
NLD
3 - 2
WLS
82%
12%
6%
|
86 | 93 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
England
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Nov. 2022 |
ENG
0 - 0
USA
62%
21%
17%
|
93 | 90 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 2022 |
ENG
6 - 2
IRN
66%
20%
14%
|
93 | 89 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 2022 |
ENG
3 - 3
DEU
38%
23%
39%
|
93 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2022 |
ITA
1 - 0
ENG
36%
25%
39%
|
93 | 92 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 2022 |
ENG
0 - 4
HUN
80%
14%
7%
|
94 | 84 | 10 | -1 |