EC Qualifying Playoff. Final
Global 2-1
Croatia vs Slovenia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67%
Win probability
1.88
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.9%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
5.3%
3-0
8.9%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.9%
2-0
14.3%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.9%
1-0
15.2%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26.3%
21.1%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
21.1%
11.9%
Win probability
0.64
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
3.1%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.9%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2.4%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
+19%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Croatia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct. 2003 |
HRV
1 - 0
BGR
55%
25%
20%
|
92 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2003 |
BEL
2 - 1
HRV
54%
24%
21%
|
92 | 93 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2003 |
AND
0 - 3
HRV
10%
21%
68%
|
92 | 53 | 39 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2003 |
ENG
3 - 1
HRV
70%
20%
11%
|
92 | 98 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 2003 |
EST
0 - 1
HRV
21%
25%
54%
|
92 | 72 | 20 | 0 |
Matches
Slovenia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct. 2003 |
CYP
2 - 2
SVN
39%
26%
35%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2003 |
SVN
0 - 2
FRA
13%
22%
65%
|
84 | 100 | 16 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2003 |
SVN
3 - 1
ISR
47%
23%
30%
|
84 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2003 |
SVN
2 - 1
HUN
45%
23%
32%
|
83 | 87 | 4 | +1 |
| 07 Jun. 2003 |
ISR
0 - 0
SVN
71%
18%
12%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | 0 |