Conmebol Sudamericana . 1/16
Global 4-2
São Paulo vs Ceará analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.5%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.5%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.6%
3-0
7.6%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.6%
2-0
12.4%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.4%
1-0
13.6%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.7%
22.2%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.2%
15.2%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
4%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.8%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
São Paulo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug. 2011 |
SAO
1 - 1
PAL
53%
25%
22%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2011 |
AMF
1 - 1
SAO
19%
24%
57%
|
85 | 66 | 19 | -1 |
| 13 Aug. 2011 |
SAO
2 - 2
ATP
61%
22%
16%
|
85 | 77 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2011 |
CEA
2 - 1
SAO
29%
26%
45%
|
85 | 74 | 11 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2011 |
AVA
1 - 2
SAO
28%
25%
47%
|
85 | 74 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Ceará
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug. 2011 |
CRZ
1 - 0
CEA
70%
19%
12%
|
76 | 86 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2011 |
CEA
3 - 0
GRE
32%
27%
42%
|
75 | 83 | 8 | +1 |
| 14 Aug. 2011 |
COR
2 - 2
CEA
66%
21%
13%
|
75 | 86 | 11 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2011 |
CEA
2 - 1
SAO
29%
26%
45%
|
74 | 85 | 11 | +1 |
| 07 Aug. 2011 |
SAN
1 - 0
CEA
68%
20%
13%
|
75 | 84 | 9 | -1 |