Copa Libertadores . Quarter-finals
Global 2-2
São Caetano vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.3%
Win probability
1.93
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.8%
3-0
5%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.8%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.2%
1-0
8%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.5%
22.1%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
10%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.1%
24.6%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
14.5%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
6.8%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-18%
+26%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
São Caetano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 May. 2002 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
SAO
52%
23%
25%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 May. 2002 |
SAO
1 - 1
UCO
66%
19%
15%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2002 |
UCO
1 - 1
SAO
42%
24%
34%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2002 |
SAO
0 - 1
CCP
57%
22%
21%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | -1 |
| 28 Mar. 2002 |
ALI
0 - 3
SAO
22%
23%
55%
|
82 | 63 | 19 | 0 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May. 2002 |
DEP
2 - 2
PEÑ
27%
25%
48%
|
80 | 69 | 11 | 0 |
| 09 May. 2002 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
SAO
52%
23%
25%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2002 |
JUV
2 - 5
PEÑ
25%
25%
51%
|
79 | 65 | 14 | +1 |
| 30 Apr. 2002 |
PEÑ
2 - 2
MWA
70%
17%
13%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | -1 |
| 27 Apr. 2002 |
PEÑ
2 - 1
DEF
65%
20%
16%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | +1 |