Copa del Rey . Last 16
Global 3-1
Real Zaragoza vs Málaga analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72.3%
Win probability
2.25
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.5%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.2%
4-0
5.5%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.6%
3-0
9.8%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.4%
2-0
13.1%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.6%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
17.4%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.4%
10.2%
Win probability
0.71
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.5%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Zaragoza
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 2007 |
RMA
1 - 0
ZAR
69%
19%
13%
|
88 | 92 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 2007 |
MAL
0 - 3
ZAR
35%
28%
38%
|
87 | 81 | 6 | +1 |
| 06 Jan. 2007 |
ZAR
2 - 1
SEV
38%
26%
36%
|
87 | 92 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 2006 |
ATH
0 - 0
ZAR
45%
26%
29%
|
87 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2006 |
ZAR
0 - 1
VCF
44%
26%
30%
|
87 | 91 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Málaga
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 2007 |
CAD
1 - 0
MAL
44%
26%
31%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 2007 |
MAL
0 - 3
ZAR
35%
28%
38%
|
81 | 87 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2007 |
MAL
2 - 1
ALM
60%
23%
17%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 Dec. 2006 |
MUR
3 - 2
MAL
34%
27%
39%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2006 |
MAL
1 - 0
CDT
65%
22%
14%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | 0 |