Champions League Last 16
Global 3-2Real Madrid vs Manchester United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71.1%
Win probability
2.64
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.7%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.1%
4-0
5%
5-1
2.8%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.5%
3-0
7.6%
4-1
5.3%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.6%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.1%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.1%
16%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
6.9%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
16%
12.8%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
8.4%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Feb. 2013 |
RMA
4 - 1
SEV
88%
8%
4%
|
97 | 87 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2013 |
GRA
1 - 0
RMA
6%
14%
80%
|
97 | 76 | 21 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2013 |
RMA
1 - 1
FCB
50%
21%
29%
|
97 | 98 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2013 |
RMA
4 - 0
GET
92%
6%
2%
|
97 | 84 | 13 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 2013 |
VCF
1 - 1
RMA
16%
19%
65%
|
97 | 89 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb. 2013 |
MUD
2 - 0
EVE
75%
16%
9%
|
94 | 88 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2013 |
FUL
0 - 1
MUD
16%
21%
63%
|
94 | 84 | 10 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2013 |
MUD
2 - 1
SOU
85%
10%
4%
|
94 | 77 | 17 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2013 |
MUD
4 - 1
FUL
84%
12%
5%
|
94 | 84 | 10 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2013 |
TOT
1 - 1
MUD
25%
24%
51%
|
94 | 89 | 5 | 0 |