Penybont vs Newtown analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.1%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.3%
3-0
5%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.2%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.9%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.2%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
11%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.4%
24.5%
Win probability
1.14
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.6%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-7%
-20%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
56
1º
5º
3º
42
4º
6º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
80 | 21 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
61 | 18 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
3º
|
56 | 15 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
6º
|
42 | 9 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
50 | 9 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
45 | 5 |
6º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase (1st r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
100% | 0% |
|
Play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Penybont
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Apr. 2023 |
CON
0 - 0
PEN
42%
28%
30%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Apr. 2023 |
PEN
2 - 5
TNS
44%
25%
31%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 2023 |
CAR
2 - 3
PEN
43%
27%
30%
|
67 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2023 |
PEN
2 - 2
BAL
43%
26%
31%
|
65 | 67 | 2 | +2 |
| 18 Mar. 2023 |
NEW
0 - 1
PEN
46%
26%
28%
|
65 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Newtown
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Apr. 2023 |
NEW
1 - 2
CAR
47%
26%
27%
|
63 | 65 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2023 |
BAL
1 - 2
NEW
53%
23%
24%
|
62 | 67 | 5 | +1 |
| 01 Apr. 2023 |
NEW
0 - 5
TNS
35%
25%
40%
|
63 | 67 | 4 | -1 |
| 24 Mar. 2023 |
CON
2 - 0
NEW
42%
26%
32%
|
63 | 67 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2023 |
NEW
0 - 1
PEN
46%
26%
28%
|
64 | 65 | 1 | -1 |