Peñarol vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.3%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.7%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.9%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.6%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.3%
22.7%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.7%
23%
Win probability
1.13
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
6%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
14.2%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.2%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+14%
+13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan. 2019 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
NAC
58%
22%
20%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 2018 |
NAC
1 - 2
PEÑ
38%
26%
36%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2018 |
DEF
1 - 2
PEÑ
25%
25%
51%
|
82 | 71 | 11 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2018 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
PRO
77%
15%
8%
|
82 | 66 | 16 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2018 |
NAC
1 - 1
PEÑ
40%
25%
34%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan. 2019 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
NAC
58%
22%
20%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 2019 |
RIV
1 - 0
NAC
63%
22%
16%
|
79 | 86 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 2018 |
NAC
1 - 2
PEÑ
38%
26%
36%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | -1 |
| 04 Nov. 2018 |
NAC
1 - 0
DAN
60%
23%
17%
|
80 | 72 | 8 | 0 |
| 31 Oct. 2018 |
NAC
0 - 1
FLU
50%
25%
25%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | -1 |