Peñarol vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
42.8%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.8%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.5%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.8%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.1%
25.7%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
12.2%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.7%
31.5%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
8.4%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.3%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.8%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
+13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 2014 |
VEL
1 - 1
PEÑ
44%
26%
30%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2014 |
PEÑ
1 - 1
VEL
46%
26%
28%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2014 |
NAC
0 - 0
PEÑ
50%
24%
26%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 2013 |
CEL
1 - 0
PEÑ
17%
22%
61%
|
80 | 65 | 15 | -1 |
| 07 Dec. 2013 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
LFC
65%
21%
14%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | +1 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 2014 |
NAC
3 - 0
SPC
63%
21%
16%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2014 |
NAC
0 - 0
PEÑ
50%
24%
26%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2013 |
NAC
1 - 2
FEN
77%
16%
7%
|
81 | 63 | 18 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2013 |
CSM
1 - 4
NAC
15%
23%
62%
|
81 | 62 | 19 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2013 |
NAC
1 - 0
CER
75%
16%
9%
|
81 | 63 | 18 | 0 |