Peñarol vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.7%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.7%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.1%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.5%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.3%
20%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.2%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+26%
+13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug. 2011 |
CEL
0 - 0
PEÑ
18%
23%
60%
|
81 | 65 | 16 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2011 |
BVS
0 - 3
PEÑ
20%
23%
57%
|
80 | 66 | 14 | +1 |
| 21 Aug. 2011 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
ETS
74%
17%
9%
|
80 | 62 | 18 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2011 |
MAL
4 - 0
PEÑ
51%
23%
26%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | -1 |
| 02 Aug. 2011 |
LEV
0 - 2
PEÑ
43%
24%
33%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug. 2011 |
DEF
1 - 1
CSC
59%
23%
19%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2011 |
NAC
2 - 2
DEF
57%
23%
19%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2011 |
DEF
2 - 0
JUN
72%
18%
10%
|
78 | 63 | 15 | -1 |
| 12 Jun. 2011 |
NAC
1 - 0
DEF
56%
24%
21%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | -1 |
| 05 Jun. 2011 |
DEF
1 - 0
TAC
79%
15%
6%
|
78 | 59 | 19 | +1 |