Copa Libertadores . Final
Global 8-5
Peñarol vs River Plate analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.1%
Win probability
2.43
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.2%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3%
4-0
4%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.8%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.7%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.8%
18.1%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
18.1%
16.8%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
0-1
3.2%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.5%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.4%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+23%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr. 1966 |
NAC
0 - 1
PEÑ
68%
17%
15%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1966 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
UCO
66%
18%
16%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 1966 |
PEÑ
3 - 0
NAC
58%
20%
21%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | +1 |
| 30 Mar. 1966 |
UCO
1 - 0
PEÑ
48%
23%
29%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | -1 |
| 20 Mar. 1966 |
PEÑ
3 - 0
NAC
67%
17%
16%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
River Plate
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May. 1966 |
RIV
2 - 1
IND
65%
20%
15%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 May. 1966 |
RIV
1 - 0
VEL
67%
19%
13%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 04 May. 1966 |
BOC
1 - 0
RIV
62%
20%
18%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | -1 |
| 01 May. 1966 |
ATL
0 - 3
RIV
31%
27%
42%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | +1 |
| 24 Apr. 1966 |
RIV
1 - 0
SLO
63%
20%
17%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |