Penafiel vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
23%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.2%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.6%
2-0
3.7%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
5.8%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
5.7%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
15%
25.5%
Draw
0-0
8.2%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.5%
51.6%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
0-1
12.7%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.7%
0-2
9.9%
1-3
4.9%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
15.8%
0-3
5.1%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
7.3%
0-4
2%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.7%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+15%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Penafiel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan. 2012 |
BEL
2 - 0
PEN
45%
27%
29%
|
63 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 2012 |
PEN
2 - 0
TRO
38%
28%
34%
|
62 | 65 | 3 | +1 |
| 18 Jan. 2012 |
SPB
2 - 0
PEN
77%
16%
7%
|
63 | 87 | 24 | -1 |
| 15 Jan. 2012 |
PEN
1 - 0
SCF
48%
26%
26%
|
62 | 60 | 2 | +1 |
| 08 Jan. 2012 |
OLI
2 - 2
PEN
52%
25%
24%
|
62 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan. 2012 |
VIT
1 - 0
NAC
45%
27%
28%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 2012 |
NAC
2 - 0
FEI
60%
23%
17%
|
77 | 68 | 9 | +1 |
| 18 Jan. 2012 |
NAC
0 - 0
POR
72%
18%
10%
|
78 | 61 | 17 | -1 |
| 15 Jan. 2012 |
NAC
2 - 2
UDL
59%
23%
18%
|
78 | 69 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2012 |
SCP
2 - 2
NAC
72%
18%
10%
|
77 | 88 | 11 | +1 |