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Primeira Liga. Matchday 9

Paços de Ferreira vs Arouca analysis

Paços de Ferreira Arouca
68 ELO 56
-14% Tilt 41%
170º General ELO ranking 250º
Country ELO ranking 13º
ELO win probability
46.4%
Paços de Ferreira
24.3%
Draw
29.3%
Arouca

Possible results

Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.4%
Win probability
Paços de Ferreira
1.64
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.5%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.6%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14%
1-0
9%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.2%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.3%
29.3%
Win probability
Arouca
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
7.1%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.2%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%

ELO Graph/Inclination

← Defensive Tilt Attacking →
Paços de Ferreira
-17%
+8%
Arouca

Basic stats

44
56
POS
3
15
SOT
3
9
COR
68
56
ELO
1.6
1.3
EXP
Key
POS
Ball possession
SOT
Total shots
COR
Corners
ELO
Team's ELO rating
EXP
Expected goals for the team

Points and table prediction

Paços de Ferreira
Their league position
Arouca
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
18
14º
13º
14
17º
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
17º
Current table Final expectations
PK PTS. PTS. RK PROB
Porto
50
87
80%
Sporting CP
47
77
35%
Benfica
41
77
50%
Sporting Braga
32
61
38%
Gil Vicente
27
48
10%
Estoril
25
53
10%
Portimonense
25
44
9%
Vitória Guimarães
24
47
8%
Marítimo
23
41
10º
7%
Boavista
10º
18
41
7%
Paços de Ferreira
11º
18
38
13º
7%
Tondela
12º
17
39
11º
7%
CD Santa Clara
13º
17
31
17º
8%
Vizela
14º
16
32
16º
8%
Moreirense
15º
16
39
12º
7%
Famalicão
16º
16
37
14º
8%
Arouca
17º
14
35
15º
8%
Belenenses SAD
18º
11
13
18º
30%
Expected probabilities
Paços de Ferreira
Arouca
Champion
0% 0%
Champions League
0% 0%
UCL qualifying
0% 0%
Europa Conference League
9% 7%
Mid-table
69% 66%
Relegation playoffs
7% 8%
Relegation
14% 19%

ELO progression

Paços de Ferreira
PAÇ
Arouca
ARO
Sporting Braga
SPB
Tondela
TON
Gil Vicente
GFC
Portimonense
POR
Next opponents in ELO points

Matches

Paços de Ferreira
Paços de Ferreira
1%
X%
2%
ELO PAÇ ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
17 Oct. 2021
ADM
Águias do Moradal
0 - 3
Paços de Ferreira
PAÇ
18%
21%
61%
1805 481 -1324 +6
02 Oct. 2021
FCP
Porto
2 - 1
Paços de Ferreira
PAÇ
81%
13%
6%
1805 3287 1482 -2
27 Sep. 2021
PAÇ
Paços de Ferreira
2 - 2
Belenenses SAD
BEL
47%
27%
26%
1805 1874 -69 -1
23 Sep. 2021
PAÇ
Paços de Ferreira
1 - 2
Boavista
BOA
53%
25%
22%
1818 1670 148 -12
19 Sep. 2021
VIZ
Vizela
1 - 1
Paços de Ferreira
PAÇ
33%
27%
39%
1820 1327 -493 -3

Matches

Arouca
Arouca
1%
X%
2%
ELO ARO ELO Cont. ▵ELO ±ELO
17 Oct. 2021
LEC
Leça FC
1 - 1
Arouca
ARO
36%
27%
37%
1185 713 -472 -2
02 Oct. 2021
ARO
Arouca
1 - 2
Sporting CP
SCP
9%
16%
75%
1184 3040 -1856 -2
25 Sep. 2021
MOR
Moreirense
2 - 1
Arouca
ARO
57%
23%
19%
1190 1731 541 -6
18 Sep. 2021
ARO
Arouca
2 - 2
Vitória Guimarães
VIT
23%
23%
54%
1183 2317 -1134 +7
13 Sep. 2021
MAR
Marítimo
2 - 2
Arouca
ARO
57%
23%
19%
1179 1720 541 +5