Old Road vs Willikies analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.5%
Win probability
2.3
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.1%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.1%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
2.9%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
16.4%
1-0
5.1%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
5.1%
4-3
1.5%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.8%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
2.2%
1-1
7.7%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.6%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
19.8%
24.7%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
13.6%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
7%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+51%
-47%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
31
2º
6º
4º
24
8º
15º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
46 | 49 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
34 | 34 |
3º
|
32% | |
|
|
4º
|
31 | 34 |
4º
|
32% | |
|
8º
|
25 | 31 |
5º
|
91% | |
|
5º
|
26 | 29 |
6º
|
44% | |
|
12º
|
22 | 28 |
7º
|
35% | |
|
10º
|
24 | 27 |
8º
|
61.5% | |
|
6º
|
26 | 26 |
9º
|
25% | |
|
7º
|
26 | 26 |
10º
|
6.5% | |
|
9º
|
25 | 25 |
11º
|
42.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
24 | 24 |
12º
|
61% | |
|
13º
|
21 | 24 |
13º
|
93% | |
|
14º
|
10 | 10 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
16º
|
3 | 6 |
15º
|
90% | |
|
15º
|
4 | 4 |
16º
|
90% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Old Road
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Apr. 2023 |
ORO
1 - 1
PBU
66%
19%
16%
|
29 | 25 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2023 |
FIV
0 - 5
ORO
20%
21%
59%
|
29 | 20 | 9 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 2023 |
SWE
1 - 5
ORO
42%
22%
36%
|
29 | 27 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2023 |
LIB
0 - 4
ORO
29%
21%
50%
|
27 | 20 | 7 | +2 |
| 20 Feb. 2023 |
ALL
6 - 1
ORO
48%
22%
31%
|
29 | 29 | 0 | -2 |
Matches
Willikies
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 2023 |
TRY
2 - 4
WIL
50%
21%
29%
|
26 | 27 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 2023 |
SAP
3 - 3
WIL
56%
20%
25%
|
26 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2023 |
WIL
1 - 3
PAR
48%
21%
30%
|
27 | 26 | 1 | -1 |
| 06 Mar. 2023 |
WIL
0 - 2
ALL
45%
22%
34%
|
28 | 28 | 0 | -1 |
| 28 Feb. 2023 |
WIL
0 - 1
VLI
48%
22%
31%
|
29 | 29 | 0 | -1 |