Notch vs SNL analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.3%
Win probability
2.03
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.6%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.3%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.5%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
6.6%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.7%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.4%
21.4%
Draw
0-0
3.7%
1-1
9.5%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
21.4%
23.4%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
6%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
13.8%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
6.4%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+20%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Notch
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul. 2019 |
NOT
1 - 4
WUN
66%
19%
15%
|
34 | 27 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2019 |
PAP
1 - 3
NOT
32%
22%
46%
|
33 | 25 | 8 | +1 |
| 13 Jul. 2019 |
PVV
4 - 0
NOT
61%
21%
18%
|
34 | 39 | 5 | -1 |
| 06 Jul. 2019 |
NOT
2 - 2
SFC
61%
19%
20%
|
35 | 29 | 6 | -1 |
| 29 Jun. 2019 |
NIS
3 - 3
NOT
28%
23%
49%
|
35 | 26 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
SNL
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul. 2019 |
SNL
1 - 0
SFC
43%
21%
36%
|
28 | 31 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2019 |
SNL
1 - 2
PVV
25%
22%
53%
|
29 | 41 | 12 | -1 |
| 13 Jul. 2019 |
SNL
0 - 2
TRA
17%
22%
60%
|
31 | 46 | 15 | -2 |
| 06 Jul. 2019 |
SNL
2 - 0
ACO
62%
19%
20%
|
30 | 24 | 6 | +1 |
| 04 Jul. 2019 |
SNL
2 - 2
RHO
8%
15%
78%
|
30 | 52 | 22 | 0 |