Newcastle vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75.3%
Win probability
2.43
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
3.1%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4%
4-0
6.3%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.8%
3-0
10.3%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.6%
2-0
12.8%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.9%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.6%
15.7%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.7%
9%
Win probability
0.71
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
2.7%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.6%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.9%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr. 1997 |
NEW
3 - 1
CHL
63%
20%
17%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 1997 |
SHW
1 - 1
NEW
40%
25%
35%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1997 |
NEW
1 - 1
SUN
81%
13%
6%
|
85 | 70 | 15 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 1997 |
WIM
1 - 1
NEW
40%
26%
34%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 1997 |
MON
3 - 0
NEW
57%
24%
19%
|
85 | 89 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr. 1997 |
DER
2 - 1
ASV
36%
28%
37%
|
73 | 84 | 11 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1997 |
DER
1 - 1
SOU
51%
23%
26%
|
73 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1997 |
MUD
2 - 3
DER
76%
17%
7%
|
72 | 90 | 18 | +1 |
| 22 Mar. 1997 |
DER
4 - 2
TOT
31%
25%
44%
|
71 | 80 | 9 | +1 |
| 15 Mar. 1997 |
EVE
1 - 0
DER
68%
19%
13%
|
71 | 80 | 9 | 0 |