Nacional vs Plaza Colonia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
74%
Win probability
2.4
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.5%
5-0
2.8%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.8%
4-0
5.9%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.4%
3-0
9.9%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.2%
2-0
12.3%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.6%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.8%
16.2%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
7.7%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
16.2%
9.8%
Win probability
0.75
Expected goals
0-1
3.2%
1-2
2.9%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
7.1%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.1%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Sep. 2025 |
NAC
3 - 0
RAC
67%
19%
14%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 2025 |
RIV
0 - 3
NAC
14%
21%
66%
|
84 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 2025 |
HFC
1 - 2
NAC
8%
16%
75%
|
84 | 61 | 23 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2025 |
NAC
0 - 0
BOS
67%
19%
14%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2025 |
NAC
3 - 1
PRO
76%
16%
8%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Plaza Colonia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Sep. 2025 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
PLA
67%
21%
12%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2025 |
PLA
2 - 4
TOR
30%
27%
43%
|
75 | 78 | 3 | -1 |
| 23 Aug. 2025 |
DEF
1 - 0
PLA
68%
20%
12%
|
75 | 83 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2025 |
PLA
0 - 2
CER
48%
28%
24%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | -1 |
| 10 Aug. 2025 |
MWA
0 - 0
PLA
41%
28%
31%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |